Gulf: Hurricane Karl

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Jan 8, 2006
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West Hollywood, CA
The system really bombed out last night and was approaching hurricane strength as it crossed the E coast of the Yucatan.

It's now treking across the Peninsula, and the NHC's latest forecast-- as well as some of the modeling-- strengthens it to a 75-kt 'cane in the Bay of Campeche. If it can slow down and gain enough latitude, it could get interesting.

I'm considering heading down there tomorrow. The big question: how intact will the structure be when it spills out into the Bay overnight? It's a small cyclone, so that makes it quite vulnerable to land passage. On the other hand, it's moving at a good clip over basically flat terrain.

Keeping an eye on it!
 
I'm going after this one.

It's in the Bay of Campeche now and I really like the look of it-- it's one of these really tight, deep-tropical systems. My favorite kind. I call them microcanes.

Flying out tonight.
 
Good hunting Josh and stay safe. Not a lot of good news coming out of Mexico these days but you seem to make it around down there without many problems. I look forward to seeing your pics and posts.
 
Due to the small size of Karl, warm sea surface temperatures, and light shear, (less than 10 kts) Karl could undergo rapid intensification over the next 36 hours despite the relatively shallow depth of the 26C isotherm. The latest vortex data message revealed that the pressure continues to drop and is now down to 983mb. As for the track, a large high pressure over the southern U.S. will steer Karl generally to the west or west southwest until it makes landfall in southern Mexico.

Good luck chasing Josh!
 
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Karl looks to be undergoing some RI at the moment. I wonder if this will play out like a "Charley" type scenario?
 
Excellent cloud top top temperatures, huh? An eye is also becoming better defined with each satellite image. All with warm SSTs and a nice upper level anti-cyclone. We will have aircraft data for another few hours and then again tomorrow morning through maybe noon(according to the current schedule)... and then it should be making landfall. I think you picked a good one Josh... not only are you going to be seeing a tight compact windstorm that should be intensifying all night, but it looks like a daylight landfall too.
 
Good day all,

His should be a Mexican version of Charley. Josh M better be in a reinforced structure because I believe he was banking on just a strong cat-1 before he flew out there yesterday.
 
Thanks, everyone, for the well wishes! I've made it to Veracruz, and I'm hopefully going to hit the road to head N in the next hour or two.

Yeah, the intensification has kind of surprised me. I was certainly expecting more than a Cat 1-- I wouldn't schelp all the way to Mexico for that-- but I was not expecting a Cat 4 (which is what the NHC is now predicting). So, I'm like, whoa.

This is my favorite kind of hurricane--the really tightly wound, really severe, really small ones. (I call them "microcanes". :)) I've never gotten in the core of one this nice, although I've often fantasized about it. Charley was that type of 'cane, and I missed it (was living in Europe back then), and that's always driven me a little insane. I came close with Dean on the Yucatan, but missed the core by a few miles.

Now I'm wondering if Karl could be a hearty consolation prize. It's a real beauty on the infrared imagery.
 
The satellite presentation is degrading a bit-- I think the cyclone has peaked. But it should still be pretty good. The hotel finally found me a rental car-- a serious challenge!-- and I'm about to head up the coast to get into the core.
 
The eye continues to fill in on satellite... it looks like the plane is leaving and this last pass the pressure was up a bit... but the wind field was still looking good... they got 120kt 700mb winds... ~105kt at the surface. And thats the week side eyewall... which may just scrape Veracruz.

EDIT: the radar site is back up... it looks like the bulk of the stronger convection is on the south side for now. About to landfall... an hour or so.
 
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Hey, guys! I'm back in Veracruz. It was a pretty cool chase—not the perfect, fantasy hurricane I'd been hoping for—but a good, interesting one.

I rode it out in the extreme NW outskirts of Veracruz (19.216N 96.228W) and therefore nicked the SE edge of the eye a little after noon. There was an odd, "choppy" calm from around 12 noon to 12:20 pm CDT—although there were a couple of isolated, damaging blasts of wind during this time (including one at 12:09 pm), perhaps because the location was so close to the edge of the eye. There was little to no precip during this period, and the sky just to the W was very bright—almost sunny. High, destructive wind gusts and rain immediately followed just after 12:20 pm.

I recorded 985.9 mb (on a Kestrel 4500NV) at 11:50 am CDT—almost 10 mb higher than the landfall value of 976 mb—suggesting the pressure gradient was still very tight, given that the center of the eye was only a few miles to the NW. The pressure hovered in the 986-988-mb range for a good half hour, then started to rise again for real starting just after 12:20 pm CDT. (See graph below.) (The barometer was calibrated for an estimated altitude of 20 ft, but I still need to check to make sure that altitude was accurate. If not, I'll correct these values for sea-level pressure accordingly.)

The neighborhood I was in apparently didn't have decent building codes, because the air was filled with flying debris—including thousands of heavy ceramic roof tiles filling the air like confetti.

Re: winds... Karl's wind field was small but apparently pretty symmetric when the cyclone came ashore. (See HRD surface-wind analysis, below.)

The city of Veracruz was raked pretty squarely by the SE eyewall. Despite this, Dr. Jeff Masters said in his blog that most of the city except for the N portions did not get sustained hurricane winds, citing a rather lukewarm wind max of 40 kt gusting to 50 kt at the airport. I'm not sure I agree with him. A solid reading of 57 kt (10-min) with a gust to 82 kt from an automated station in the harbor right in Veracruz suggests at least the waterfront portions of the city got sustained hurricane winds, since that 10-min value converts to a 1-min value of over 64 kt. And according to the HRD analysis, most of Veracruz metro got raked by Cat-1 winds. It’s important to note that the airport is several miles inland and further S than most of the city, so it was apparently just outside of Karl's small wind core.

There wasn't much of any building damage in the city center, but almost every street was blocked by downed trees when I drove back in, and there were plenty of damaged signs, gas-station canopies, etc. That kind of stuff. Damage decreases as you go further S, and the "damage gradient" is quite sharp: N areas (like where I was for my chase) got raked pretty good, whereas where I'm staying—just a few miles to the S, in neighboring Boca del Rio—there's very little wind damage.

I’ll post a video summary in a couple of weeks. The footage is so-so. I was alone on this chase, and between driving (manual transmission—ugh!), shooting video, and data collection, I was stretched a little thin. A tough chase, that’s for sure. In a way, I’m glad it’s done. My hotel has power, and I’m just going to relax here through the weekend before heading home to Southern California. :cool:
 

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Nice! The airport observer put an "occasional gusts to 60kt" into one of his/her remarks at just about the time of landfall. As you already noted, most of the rest of the city, excluding the southern outskirts, would have recieved higher winds.

MMVR 171654Z 18040G50KT 1/4SM +SHRA OVC005CB 22/22 A2943 RMK 63505 8/9// OCNL G 60KT
 
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