Guesses for Winter 2009-10

[Rob Wadsworth]

We had a dying Typhoon 'Melor' just pass thru the central coast of CA last week, and it dropped between 3-6 inches of precip. As a rule, we never get any appreciable precip until/around the 31st of October. I can say that because I've lived in this same location since dirt was new (some 40 years+). The last time we had such conditions was in 1998, so my guess is that it is definetly going to be wetter on the CA coast this year. Whenever we had early rains, it almost always ended up with large amounts of precip occuring. Which is fine; as CA NEEDS the rain this year.

Incidentally, the last time we had a tornado on the West Coast/central CA was in 1998. Am I hoping for a bit of severe weather because El Nino may go to the modeate/strong status? You bet!

I looked at the NOAA projection for this year as supplied from the previous post. Thanks for providing it here - much appreciated!

Edit: I think it raises one particular question in my mind. If El Nino is going to be a major player this year; how will it skew the distribution pattern of severe storms/tornadic activity on the Great Plains this coming Spring? Will we see less of it on the Plains, and more of it twards the E Coast and the South?
Just though I'd ask...

 

[Steve Sherrod]

2010 spring tornado outlook

Rob, you pose a good question! I have lived in the Wichita area all my 43 years. I am going to review that past records of precipitation and the following years conditions. I believe Davies has done some work on this. I will look up who has worked on this and post it later.. Usually if we get alot of precip in the winter the fields have more moisture for the following spring and we get stronger storms.. Usually west of Wichita out around Liberal and east to Pratt, and north up towards Hay and Salina.. We'll see if that pans out.

 

[czenzel]

Rob, you pose a good question! I have lived in the Wichita area all my 43 years. I am going to review that past records of precipitation and the following years conditions. I believe Davies has done some work on this. I will look up who has worked on this and post it later.. Usually if we get alot of precip in the winter the fields have more moisture for the following spring and we get stronger storms.. Usually west of Wichita out around Liberal and east to Pratt, and north up towards Hay and Salina.. We'll see if that pans out.

In Florida there also can be a Tornado outbreak with El Nino. The TV Stations are reporting it will be a harsh winter and they said that when similar weather patterns like this happened before that they had the strongest tornados.

 

[Jason Foster]

In Florida there also can be a Tornado outbreak with El Nino. The TV Stations are reporting it will be a harsh winter and they said that when similar weather patterns like this happened before that they had the strongest tornados.

This was actually discussed in the NOAA Winter Weather Outlook. SE could see more severe weather this year.

 

[John Vandehei]

It's well known that an El Nino typically spells a mild winter for much of the northern US, and wetter weather for California and the Gulf Coast region. One thing nobody has mentioned is the possible effect of the deep solar minimum that's currently occurring. There has been a historical correlation between periods of low sunspot activity and cooler weather. The Little Ice age corresponding with the Maunder Minimum is probably the best known example. The sun has currently been in a quieter than normal lull in sunspot activity since about 2007. Last winter in the Northern Hemisphere was colder than normal in most areas. Also, if I recall, ski resorts in the Southern Hemisphere opened up three to four weeks earlier than normal last winter (2009). Now that winter is approaching on this side of the equator, we see examples of an early winter such as Loveland Basin opening up early, plus early snows occurring in the European Alps. So I have to wonder, what effect could this have on El Nino? Could the northern US, which is typically warmer in El Nino years, be closer to normal in terms of temperature?

 

[jpersonette]

El nino and solar activitiy

I agree with John V. I am going to look for research on El NInos during solar minimums. The sun is very inactive right now-almost scary its so inactive. There are some solar mass ejections, but not many. There needs to be more study of how solar mass ejections and flare events affect the upper atmosphere.
My feeling is that el ninos during times of inactive sun are generally weaker and, possibly, of a different "type". This was mentioned by a researcher earlier in the summer. Anyone have thoughts on this?

John Personette
MS climatology, NIU
Professor, Ill. Valley Comm. College