Guesses for Winter 2009-10

[czenzel]

Hi everyone,

With all the weird weather the Northeast experienced last winter such as the warmer days and not a lot of snow: What do you think the winter will look like this year (2009-Spring 2010)?

It would be amazing if we had another straight year of warmer days and not a lot of snow. Where I am at, we only had a couple of ice and snow storms, but not as many like before.

I think this year there will be a few big storms in lieu of the storms my location missed last year.

What do you think will happen in your locations?

Thanks,
Christopher Zenzel

 

[Chris Hayes]

Winter of 2007-2008 was what I would call a good and snowy winter. Whereas, the winter of 2008-2009 was cold (few days in Jan were the coldest in 15 years) but not very snowy. I'm hoping for at least a couple of good snowstorms this winter, but for it to end sooner rather than later. A quick transition to spring would be nice after Feb.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

After a very snowy Winter last year(200"+ in some of the Lake Michigan snowbelts and up to 300" near Lake Superior), this Winter is bound to disappoint.

The future development of El Nino will of course have a dramatic influence on the Winter of 09-10.

The NWS continues to beat the drums for the current weak El Nino to develop into a moderate or even possibly a strong El Nino this Winter.
Many private forecasters think that this notion is completely out to lunch with more of an expectation for the El Nino to stay the same or weaken to almost La Nina conditions.

Current conditions in the equatorial Pacific suggest that El Nino seems to have leveled off for the moment or even hints of weakening. Note that some cool anamolies have developed near South America both at depth and at the surface.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

A moderate to strong El Nino in Michigan end up almost always mild and on the dry side. A weak El Nino to near neutral conditions could provide for a much more interesting scenario opening up the possibility of bitter cold with a couple of big storms away from the lakes but certainly nothing like the parade of storms that marched through the Upper Midwest last year.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I haven't checked lake temperatures, but I'm sure they're cooler this year than previous years. That would probably tend to limit lake delta Ts / instability... leading to less snow in the lake effect areas.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

I haven't checked lake temperatures, but I'm sure they're cooler this year than previous years. That would probably tend to limit lake delta Ts / instability... leading to less snow in the lake effect areas.

Due to recent warm weather and light winds over the lakes, the average lake temperature has gone from well below normal this Summer to the high side of normal at the present time. (Mid 60's F. in Lake Michigan)

For example, look at this graph of the average temperature of Lake Michigan over the last 5 years with the current lake temperature overlayed:

http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/stat/statistic?region=m&template=stat

 

[Robert Dewey]

Due to recent warm weather and light winds over the lakes, the average lake temperature has gone from well below normal this Summer to the high side of normal at the present time. (Mid 60's F. in Lake Michigan)

For example, look at this graph of the average temperature of Lake Michigan over the last 5 years with the current lake temperature overlayed:

http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/stat/statistic?region=m&template=stat

Interesting... thanks for the link!

 

[Chris Carter]

I dont know what to say, but its looking more and more likely that an early winter is going to hit plains this year. I said it before when a strong El Nino was forecasted for this winter that we might see a repeat over the October Snowstorm from 1997 again. I think with the recent Mountain snowstorms and the big cool down coming this weekend for the Northern Plains, its definitely a looking like an early snow is possible. Right now im keeping my eye on Sunday for Eastern Nebraska for the first flakes of the season. If it does, it will just a be a few flurries in the middle of the night.

 

[Jason Foster]

I predict it'll be colder than this summer...and the daylight hours will be shorter.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I'm guessing it's gonna be cold here!

Ok, seriously, I think we may have a decent winter around here due to El Nino kicking in. I hope so because I love snow, and lots of it!

 

[Michael Riedl]

Meh....I don't think the El Nino will be anything special this year.

 

[David Drummond]

Article from the Lubbock NWS regarding how past El Nino events have affected our winters.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/?n=news-2009821_elnino

According to some of the computer models (graph toward the top), it appears that a moderate to strong El Niño episode is likely this upcoming winter. Hence, there may be a greater than average chance at the South Plains being wetter (and perhaps snowier) than normal this winter, particularly if a strong El Niño does develop. The official long range forecast for the United States reflects this, and can be found at the Climate Prediction Center by CLICKING HERE.
The development of El Niño is also sometimes linked with cooler than normal conditions across the southeast United State during the winter, but the correlation between temperatures and El Niño is relatively weak for the South Plains. The current long range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center for the South Plains calls for equal chances to a slightly greater than average chance of winter temperatures being above average.

 

[Jason Bolt]

Just saw that Loveland ski area is opening today, the earliest opening in 40 years so they say. Not sure that bodes well for those of us hoping for a mild boring winter.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://204.2.104.196/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

That is pretty funny considering just how early it is.

 

[Chris Carter]

So much for a shot at some fall severe storms for the northern plains. I was atleast hoping for an oppurtunity at some tornadoes in October.

 

[Jonathan Behle]

For what its worth,

NOAA has issued its winter outlook.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20091015_winteroutlook.html


I personally tend to think they are overplaying the el nino up a touch as they often seem to do but atleast for once they are predicting an area of the country to actually have below normal temperatures.

My guesses on this winter are that we will see a few big ice storms pan in the Southeast and Ohio Valleys. The Pacific Northwest will probably continue its trend of milder and drier then average weather. But a few polar outbreaks are going to still hit even with the el nino east of the Rockies. For the US as a whole, Id expect a slightly more active pattern then last year and slightly milder temperatures but I dont think this winter will be extreme in one way or another.