how can you tell when the dewpoints are going to rise, or conversely, that the atmosphere is mixing out?
I've never been great with "sniffing" out moisture return/decline status, but if I'm in constant S/SE winds and my cu field isn't eroding, I'm confident my dewpoints are staying close to where I need them. Consequently, if my cu field gradually erodes over time, with flatter tops, higher bases, and even total disappearance, I am worrying about mixing out or full-on subsidence.
How can you tell when a jet max is on the way?
Often times a thin, wispy cirrus streak can be seen in the western sky, being carried along by the approaching jet max. Also, as the jet max 'rounds the southern/SErn part of the low, it can back surface winds as it pulls moisture towards the LOW circulation. So seeing cirrus to your west/southwest or a noticeable backing of surface winds can be signals of an approaching jet max.
How do you know where the cap is more likely to break?
Like I mentioned above, the cu field is the most telling sign of cap status/strength/potential. A vigorous cu field with tops that are "fighting" to push up but are continually suppressed is the best sign of a strong cap that is likely to break. A "fair weather" cu field is a sign of plentiful moisture but not enough "umph" to break through; the clouds are thick and numerous but they are showing no signs of vigorous vertical development - stout cap. The worst is a clear blue sky, which by 6'o clock usually means it's time to start deciding where you want to eat dinner.
How do you know when a storm is heading toward a better environment?
For me, I have to know the general surface environment/forecast before I leave; i.e. if I go to western OK knowing the dewpoints are slightly higher in central OK, I have a good idea that any storm that initiates in my area will be moving into better air. However there are some cases where you will have a collapsing storm ahead of your storm's track, or even a group of ongoing storms ahead of your storm, that can lay down boundaries (such was the case on the 6-12-04 Mulvane day). It's important to remember any other convection in the area of your storm can greatly influence your storm, be it for better or worse. Sometimes there is no fail-safe plan, you just gotta make a choice and roll the dice.
What are your favorite tip-offs?
Mine is a dryline bulge. You start to see a "clear arrow" of blue sky slowly moving in from the west on your cu field, eating away at it. To the north and south there's still clouds, but they're not as thick as earlier. Then you look back to the east and it's like cotton candy. The best example of this I can remember seeing was on May 12, 2004. We were in Woodward and had decided to move north, and after a few miles outside of town we noticed all the clouds were gone to the west, and were thinning in front of and behind us. Meanwhile, east of us it was thick with cu. We immediately backtracked, went east out of Woodward, and then turned north towards the thickest part of the cu field we could see. As we drove north, two towers emerged from the cu field, and the chase was on
