Global Warming may reduce hurricane formation in the Atlantic

[Alexandre Aguiar]

Researchers debate warming, hurricanes

By RANDOLPH E. SCHMID, AP Science Writer

Tue Apr 17, 11:15 PM ET

WASHINGTON - The debate over whether global warming affects hurricanes may be running into some unexpected turbulence. Many researchers believe warming is causing the storms to get stronger, while others aren't so sure. Now, a new study raises the possibility that global warming might even make it harder for hurricanes to form.

The findings, by Gabriel A. Vecchi of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Brian J. Soden of the University of Miami, are reported in Wednesday's issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

Vecchi and Soden used 18 complex computer climate models to anticipate the effects of warming in the years 2001-2020 and 2018-2100.

Included in the results were an increase in vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans.

Vertical wind shear is a difference in wind speed or direction at different altitudes. When a hurricane encounters vertical wind shear the hurricane can weaken when the heat of rising air dissipates over a larger area.

On the other hand, warm water provides the energy that drives hurricanes, so warmer conditions should make the storms stronger.
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MOD: Continue reading at link below:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070418/ap_on_sc/hurricanes_warming_3


The original paper published by the magazine can be read here:

http://www.metsul.com/__editor/filemanager/files/2007a/gfdl_wind_shear_and_global_warming.pdf

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Here is another link about this scenario.. More forcused on warming induced wind shear.


http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2840.htm

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Global climate change is extremely complex (and non-linear), and we don't know much about the potential effects beyond some things that modeling has shown. I have a feeling that we'll see further teetering in the "more hurricane" vs. "fewer hurricanes" debate as we slowly learn more about the various feedbacks involved and as more computing power comes online.

 

[Glenn Rivers]

21'st Century Hurricane Study

This is very interesting. If the results of this study turn out to be correct in the quantitative sense and not just the qualitative sence, The U.S. may see less landfalls from Cape Verdy type hurricanes but more landfalls from "home grown" type hurricanes that develope right in the GOM