GFS 7 days out – Texas!

[Stuart Robinson]

Wow – the GFS forecasts perhaps the first real chase opportunity for 2010.

Usual disclaimers (too far out in model world) but look at what *may* come to pass
500mb 100 knt SW flow
850mb 30 knt South
60 – 65 Dew points with dryline? (West Texas)

One to watch maybe …

 

[Verne Carlson]

Stu - that does look very interesting! Could even be a Cold Core tornado setup in KS for the 23rd. I'll be keeping an eye on it for sure and if it verifies it could give us possibly one of the earliest chases in tornado alley proper I can remember. Earliest TX tornado I've ever seen was the McLean, TX Feb 23rd, 2007 event.

 

[MatthewCarman]

There was some strong tornadoes near Colony, Missouri on February 28, 2007. Tornadoes were reported in KS and MO that day. Seems like most early tornado outbreaks are east of the main tornado alley. (TX,OK,KS,NE,SD)

 

[Jeff Duda]

It would be great if something like the GFS run from today (15 Jan 2010 12Z) verified at hour 180. There's nothing to say it can't. However, a quick look at the 12Z ECMWF from today also showed some severe disagreement, with the latter actually showing a weak ridge axis in the same place as the trough axis in the GFS run! How's that for model spread?

 

[David Mikulec]

Earliest TX tornado I've ever seen was the McLean, TX Feb 23rd, 2007 event.

Earliest one I've ever been on was here in KY, on January 2, 2006. Here's the NWS summary page on the event: LINK

But yeah, it would be great if this stayed together.

 

[Eric Sipes]

Well, If you were to believe last night's GFS, the only possible chase would be in E Arkansas and adjacent MO, LA, and I'm not prepared to chase in the jungle. Earlier this week, the Jan 19/20 timeframe looked similar to this and we can all see how that looks to be panning out.

This system still bears keeping watch because is all we need is a +/-12hr shift and we could be in business. The only other thing we'll need is some decent instability which can be quite difficult to get this time of year.

If we can back the dryline up to C OK/TX/KS, slow the system by 12hrs, and get CAPE at least in the range of 750-1000j/kg, I'm game. But, I'll believe it when I see it.

Just my $.02
-Eric

 

[Shane Adams]

E Arkansas is quite doable chase-wise.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

E Arkansas is quite doable chase-wise.

Ssssshhh! I like less traffic! Kidding of course. Actually I drove through that area a few months ago and was shocked at how flat it was. Look at the topography maps and you will be pleasantly surprised. I even had a decent cell signal with Sprint.

All that said, I'm just not seeing enough instability to get me too excited. The runs I have seen have not had that harsh of a dryline setting up and the best wind profiles are closer to the low where the dewpoints are lower. A cold core setup could be in the making and a MO boothill/E AR chase could materialize. A lot of chasers that I respect are starting to hype this up so perhaps I'm just missing something. The devil is in the details.

One positive is that it doesn't seem to just destroy the gulf which is good but it is still January so I'm sure that will happen several times before it is all said and done.

Feels good to be talking severe storms again!

 

[Wes Carter]

E Arkansas is quite doable chase-wise.

Shane's right. The Mississippi Embayment is pretty doggone flat, has a decent road network, and is mostly farmland with few trees. You can run a long ways N-S, and have anywhere from 50-100 miles E-W depending where you are.

 

[Eric Sipes]

I stand corrected. I've never been there but, I figured being that close to the Mississippi River and all it's tributaries, it would be a very forrested area.

Although, that being said, there is still to much uncertainty for me to make plans for the 10-12hr trip to E AR or S MO. There's a lot that has to go right for this system to play out in our favor. Including the aforementioned instability issues. A cold-core setup is a very real possibility but, at this time, I'm still only giving it a 50/50 shot. Even still, I don't know if I'd want to spend the gas money for a cold-core setup that far away. Most of us here know that it's very hit or miss in that situation.

-Eric

 

[Chris Heater]

I went chasing in the Jonesboro, AR in 2008. Very nice and flat with some good clearings. How are areas to the south of there? Haven't chased long enough to know if its still the "jungle" in the flatter areas

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Jet Stream Placement

I've been checking out the jet stream placement on GFSX for 3.5 day valid 12Z Friday 22 Jan 10. I really like the way the jet trough dips down thru the SW part of the US.

Check out the way the jet stream fans out like a "peacock" over the Rockies and the Midwest. This is clearly a good area for precipitation and storm action.

If you move on to the 4 day page, you will see the jet stream moving SW to NE thru the New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma areas. Please tell me its May and not January!!

By the time the 4.5 map show up, a low pressure will likely develop in the Rockies and set the stage for another winter snow storm! Oh Well!!

 

[Chris C Sanner]

One note on chase terrain, go check for yourself. If you ever want to check out chase terrain, just check out Google Maps with Street View. Most of the major highways are now on there so you can check out the chase terrain for yourself and make your own judgements.

With that said, both E AR/W MS are pretty flat and don't have many trees. If you can play around the rivers and if storm motion was NNE (and not crazy fast), you could have a pretty darned good chase day.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Been watching the Cold Core possibilities up in KS since 1/15 in my last post. 12z NAM now looks very promising for a CC setup on the 23rd along I-70 in KS.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I agree Verne at 21z Saturday it looks very interesting in E Kansas with over 750 j/kg, dews approaching maybe reaching 50F, and some nice 0-3km CAPE values at 21z. Something to watch for sure!