Getting more people to act: warning response

Honestly, I don't think there'll ever be a "perfect" warning system, because you forget one big element... the HUMAN element. People that are just too stubborn, stupid, whatever you wish to classify it as, will NEVER pay that much attention because they have this dumb-a$$ attitude that "it'll never happen to me, stop interrupting my Wheel of Fortune!"

My parents are the classic example of this, and I've given up trying to warn them. They reside between Murray and Paducah, KY and were nearly struck by one of the most recent tornadoes that eventually killed a few in and around Murray or Greenville, KY. I called them all day trying to convince them of the significance of this weather system. What did they do as the storms were approaching? They load up and go to Wal-Mart!

The NWS, Media, SPC, Chasers, Spotter Networks, Amateur Radio Groups, Fire/EMS/Police... they're all doing probably as best they can. But just like Harry Truman was on Harry's Ridge when the blast of Mt. St. Helen's occurred, some people just have the attitude of, "bring it on!" And some day, perhaps it will.

All we can do is keep hoping that with each new generation, and with a better understanding and education about severe storms, more people will take it seriously. For the most part, I think the system is working better. If this would have been 1965, probably hundreds would have been killed.

We'll always see the guy with no shirt on interviewed, saying "we had no warning." We'll always hear criticism of the warning system, but I say it's better than it ever has been and quite honestly, it will never be perfect because of "people."
 
I made a presentation at the National Severe Storms Conference a few years ago about amateur radio and it's response to the 05-04-03 tornado outbreak....I referenced a paper that Uncle Chuck, Al Moller and Harold Brooks wrote called "Storm Spotting and Public Awareness since the First Tornado Forecasts of 1948" the paper was full of history and information...In the paper the Integrated Warning System was discussed and it highlighted the importance of a coordinated warning/response effort...It further stated..."It has been noted that even if meteorologists could produce forecasts that are perfectly precise and accurate, when the other parts of the IWS break down for some reason, those forecasts do not achieve fully their purpose of reducing casualties and damage (see Perry and Mushkatel 1984, chapter 2)."...the bottom line in my opinion is... 1. The majority of our population is an "INDOOR POPULATION" working and staying indoors the majority of the time...They have lost track of nature and nature "SURPRISES" them with severe weather...2. We are like it or not the IPOD generation...Few listen to local broadcasts of news or weather via radio consistantly...3. CABLE/SATELLITE TV (see #2) and 4. The inability for some to take responsibility for their own actions and safety...In the NBC report the "MORON" stated that he didn't get adequate warning and was blaming the "lack of sirens"...The population density doesn't warrant outdoor warning devices as it is cost prohibitive...But in a typical response "after the fact" NBC chose to highlight the "lack of warning" as implied by their interviewee and not the fact that he should have taken responsibility for his own safety...
 
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David Poch said:
IF this story turns out to be true then the same networks *****ing about some having no warning did not do their job and cut in to cover what was going on.
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One of the warning issues that will need to be dealt with is how to reach cable/satellite viewers. There may be some areas that have an alert system that goes out spectrum-wide and overlays all viewing channels, but there aren't many.

Why were the cable networks covering politics instead of weather? It's very simple: they make billions of dollars off of politics in both ads and coverage, and very little off of severe weather. Since current top media management thinks ONLY of stock market profile, advertising revenues and correlated viewer ratings (with nary a thought of civic service, education, or - God forbid - art), media coverage of political campaigns is slithering into multi-year American Idol-type bloatations which deliberately and directly affect stock performance in ways that are not too far removed from fixing horse races.

If someone came up with an actuarial program that rewarded television outlets for the number of deaths prevented in a weather emergency, they'd be out driving through the streets in sound trucks and forcing people into shelters at gunpoint.
 
David Poch said:
IF this story turns out to be true then the same networks *****ing about some having no warning did not do their job and cut in to cover what was going on. Nice real nice.
Honestly I don't know if it is true or not. Just passing along from CNN on the February 6th coverage. It seems believable though. Like stated earlier, what to do with the people who hear the warning, but can't do anything about it? Like the elderly or the mentally challanged or other physically challanged people? I am sure more than a handful of elderly people live alone in the USA. I am talking 80+ years old. These people may hear the warning, but may be to slow or bed ridden to get to shelter, if they even have any. It concerns me, because like I mentioned before, my own grandmother has a hard time moving from place to place now and that mindset of "it won't happen here" and her inability to make it from Point A to Point B in a certain amount of time could prove fatal. I know in my case if she keeps the NWR on and hears the warning, I think she could get to the basement within the average lead time of 11-15 minutes.

Another issue that truly pisses me off deals with another family member (I seriously think I was adopted lol) Whenever severe weather hits I have the whole house wired up to 3 different channels, 1- The NWS, 2- The Spotters, 3- EOC. Well if we are in a major event and the radios keep going off, this certain family member would go around and start turning off all the radios, because "she doesn't care and doesn't want to hear it'

Now I have heard of people saying "if it don't effect me, then I don't care" well in this case it's "it can effect me and I still don't care, because I know it won't" In my case it's a bit extreme because it literally sounds like a fire station with the amount of radio traffic going off. Least I know I will be prepared when that night storm rolls through. If you can sleep through that, then you must be a freak of nature lol.

I tell that story because I bring up another point. I know my weather radio is for the entire area, so in my case, Cook, Lake, Dupage, Will, Grundy, Kendall, Kankakee, Lake and Porter IN. How many people with the older radios will simply turn it down or turn it off because "it isn't affecting my area" or like the case Springfield, MO, faced earlier this year where they were under warnings for something like 7 hours.

It's that persons will to live. People make choices every day, some right, some wrong. I can't think of an easier choice than to live during a tornado by just following standard protocol. In this day and age out of 100 people effected by a tornado I would say maybe 5-10 LEGITIMATELY didn't know about it for one reason or another. If people watch the local news on a regular basis it is almost impossible not to know severe weather is in the forecast. Why not spend the night in the basement on the couch? or send the kids to a neighbors house for a "sleep over." It is so easy for me to say but with all the drama with politics and war and peoples lives going on, who really takes the 10 seconds to think about "hmmm what if a tornado hit me?"

All of these thoughts are swirling through my mind and have been ver since I was little. These problems are why I am still pursuing a meteorology degree. Meteorologically speaking I think we have a pretty good handle on forecasting what can happen. We just have to figure out a better way by mandating NWR's to every new home in the USA (last I heard it was certain states so correct me if I am wrong) If I had it my way there would be one in every single room of the house so there is no excuse why anyone can't hear it. I would also find a way where it would be impossible to shut off. But this is just one mans opinion.....and I guess I see everyone else's lives more valuable than they do.

Severe weather preparedness may be a sliver of the world's problems.....but to a meteorologist it is one of the most ongoing and prominent problems facing their field. Hats off to all of you guys who do your job and go above and beyond what's asked of you, it truly is a shame the majority of you still get blamed for the 20 year old out joyriding with his camera trying to find the night time rain wrapped tornado moving at 65 mph.......and you get the rest.
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Danny Neal said:
Another issue that truly pisses me off deals with another family member (I seriously think I was adopted lol) Whenever severe weather hits I have the whole house wired up to 3 different channels, 1- The NWS, 2- The Spotters, 3- EOC. Well if we are in a major event and the roads keep going off, this certain family member would go around and start turning off all the radios, because "she doesn't care and doesn't want to hear it'
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That sounds exactly like my dad. A few weeks ago a small tornado hit New Port Richey while I was at work. The warning at the time stated the tornado would be near Odessa, FL, where we live, and he didn't care at all. I called him afterwards on my break and asked if he even knew about it, and he hardly did, claiming the warning was for the next county up and wasn't a big deal. He doesn't believe dangerous weather is happening until he can look out the window and see it, and that could very well mean its too late. It's a shame because I know he's smarter than that.

And for what its worth, the store I work at was unaware of the warning as well, despite supposedly monitoring a weather radio.
 
i think putting Severe Weather Education into Schools is an excllent idea.
 
So many excellent points are being made here and I'm very glad to see this discussion is continuing.

I agree with Aaron that education in schools is a great idea. Is it feasible? I don't know. Perhaps others have checked into starting such a program, but if I had to guess (not to be a pessimist) I would have to think this would be a pretty challenging undertaking that would be difficult to implement, at least in the near future. It seems like it would take quite a movement to get this added as a standard to the curriculum. Nonetheless, it’s a great idea that would undoubtedly reach many certainly saving lives.

Danny mentioned that he remembers tornado drills in schools that were carried out with little/no explanation. I can remember this as well. Students looked at is as a break from the normal repetitive routine of school and thus it was an exciting time. These were carried out no more than twice per school year, if I remember correctly. An explanation was never given. It seems to me that this would be the most logical time to implement tornado education into the curriculum.

Dustin made the point earlier that there are many bigger and more significant threats to people than the weather. He mentioned that tobacco, diet, alcohol, automobile accidents, suicide, etc., are some of the ones that kill more people annually than tornadoes do. I believe this is a huge factor. Consider the number of people that continue to make poor choices in the above. I personally know quite a few people that either care little about their health—at least not enough to take action, who have at one time considered suicide, or who refuse to wear their seat belts. I venture to say if these folks (which make up a considerable percentage of the population) care so little about something that is more likely to take their life, why would they care about a threat that is less likely to take their life, tornadoes? The "I don't really care" attitude is probably something we'll always have to deal with. Why? That’s a question for the psychologists, I suppose.

Although a little off-topic, sporting events and other large gatherings are another example of a problem regarding action taken in a tornado warning. It has probably already been mentioned on this forum, but the Nashville Predators played the Carolina Hurricanes as a long-track supercell with a history of damage passed right over the Sommet Center in downtown Nashville. Here are a few radar images:

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Fortunately, no tornado damage occurred in Davidson County last Tuesday. But, this was indeed a close call where the potential was there for large numbers of injuries and deaths.

It’s amazing to see the progress we’ve made in this science which can be credited to those in research that have provided operational meteorologists with amazing technology/tools to get their job done. As we continue to advance, lead time for severe weather warnings becomes less of a problem and it becomes apparent that more focus needs to be placed on the perception of warnings, which is something I know many have been working on, including Dr. Kloesel at the University of Oklahoma. Educating people and finding more convenient and practical ways to get the warning out is as important now as ever, considering that all tornado deaths in this past event can be attributed to the action, or lack of, that folks took when the warning was issued. Some never got the warning, but there was a warning for each tornado event in which someone died. I had a tough decision to make when I began working on my meteorology degree. I chose to take the road that's arguably less traveled and decided to transfer to a school that places more emphasis on operational meteorology, relative to other programs. My goal is to get the most that I possibly can out of my meteorology education to prepare myself for a job in operational meteorology, not research. My main focus will be on doing everything I can to change the public’s perception of warnings by understanding the psychological and social issues that have been discussed here.

Finally, I would like to apologize for taking Aaron's comments the wrong way earlier. The level of frustration is high when a once in a 20-year event (as far as lives lost and number of greater than EF-3/F3 tornadoes) occurs. It's been a rough last five days for me, personally—I’ve lost quite a bit of sleep.
 
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Aaron Said: "Stretched time in school is a legitimate concern. If done properly, however, would it really add that much more time? We already take time out of the day to do tornado drills... attach a little school-wide function on the same day. If we really want to get into school time issues, I'd be happy to share my opinion on the insane amount of standardized testing that occurs. I'll leave that out of this thread to avoid going off topic =)"

I've been involved with the public education system here in Texas since 2000. Weather education is severely lacking here. The education procedures are determined by the State Department of Education, which is run by politicians, not educators.
The science curriculum, tested by the state test TAKS, focuses extensively on physics, chemestry and biology. By highschool, students are expected to understand and work equasions with high level physics and chemestry processes. However I have found next to no high schools that offer a meteorology course, and those that do offer it as an elective and in combination with another earth science such as geology.
As a result, I have found that 6th graders usually do not know the difference between watches and warnings. They have zero understanding of basic meteorology dynamics.
Weather is mentioned briefly in the 2nd, 6th and 8th grade curriculums and is buried to less than several days at most within the overall geography/geology curriculums.
Thus, tremendous focus is spent on the phases of the moon, including their scientific names, the specific dynamics and types of fault lines-scientific names to boot, classifications of rocks and minerals, and Newton's Laws, and by 5th grade- series and parallel circuits, but almost zero focus on cold, warm, stationary fronts etc.
I personally find this frustrating, as of course we are a tornado and other weather disaster prone state.
Just the other day, I mentioned this issue to a science team director and she said "you got to do what you are required to do". When I told her that it's a shame that meteorology is not treated like physics, chemestry and biology since of course we could lose our roofs to twisters, she simply had no response.
I believe that education is important, and storm dynamics/safety should be included in the public school science curriculum.
Then we may have more cases of the situation analagous to the 6th grader who saved 300 lives by warning fellow beach goers of the impending tsunami, and credited her science teacher (in England) for this knowledge.
 
Stephen:

Your experience sounds familiar to my education. I can't recall a weather unit in elementary school... if it was, I surely knew more from the books my parents bought me to feed my interests. In 7th grade, I do recall having a unit on weather. We had to watch the old weather summary show on... what was it... PBS? I loved that show. We also had to analyze surface maps which is pretty amazing in retrospect. The main goal was to see fronts and understand what conditions were associated with them.

In high school, I took a science elective as a sophomore that covered astronomy, meteorology, and oceanography. I was the youngest student in the class. It was typically for seniors who failed chem and needed another science class to graduate.

I guess what gets me is meteorology is probably one of the most practical sciences that people *could* benefit from. << Aaron's official biased opinion.
 
Yes, just a little bit of memorable education as a youngster can be an of enormous leverage. Back in the 1960's, when I was a third grader in USD 259 (Sedgwick County, Kansas), we had a special unit to educate us on tornado safety. The centerpiece of the program was a film about a tornado striking the town of Cherryvale, Kansas. (To this day, I have no idea whether it was completely mythical, or based on a real event.) The dramatic portion centered on a farmer and his wife on the outskirts of town. The old farmer was pacing up and down all day long as weather bulletins cut in over the radio. The film described the atmospheric conditions - warm humid air, a cold front approaching and showed takes of forecasters in the weather bureau going over maps and typing out bulletins. The climax of the film came when the farmer stepped out on his front porch and sighted a long, looping white tornado against a black background approaching, as he frantically ran in and phoned his report. I remember it scaring the hell out of us - I don't think Alfred Hitchcock could have produced it to more effect. At any rate, we all learned the distinction between a watch and a warning, some primary stuff on the atmospheric ingredients of severe storms, safe places to take cover, the importance of being alert to changing weather, and how the "civil defense system" (as it was called in those days) requires the participation of citizens such as the nervous farmer who called in his report which prompted a warning to save lives. Looking back, I think that little film had something to do with my lifelong interest in trying to be weatherwise. It was probably only about a two-hour effort, but to lasting effect.
 
I'm not reading back three pages so if this has already been mentioned I apologize, but IMO there are a couple things that get people to react to warnings. A lot of people don't take warnings seriously because of the number of warnings they've experienced that didn't verify, so if something out of the ordinary occurs to convey that the warning is particularly serious you will get people to listen and act on it. One way to emphasize the seriousness of the situation is the tornado emergency (which usually only applies when a confirmed tornado is heading towards a populated area). The other one that gets people to react to a warning is live chaser reports confirming that there is a tornado and it is heading towards them. The one thing those two have in common is that it lets the public know that this isn't something to ignore. There really is a tornado and you need to act.
 
I concur with Stephen. The need for increased severe weather awareness and knowledge is vitally important to our children's education. Luckily, I am in a position of teaching 6th graders at a private school, and given total control as to the length of time and the depth of weather curriculum in my class. I take an entire month to teach the students the basics of solar radiation, global circulation, precipitation processes, weather systems, and severe weather (among other topics).

I wish most other schools spent at least half of this time on these same subjects. Moreover, showing the students where to access weather information and how to interpret it, would be quite a simple task for many educators.

I know from personal experience, that a large percentage of the incoming students in my class say that their family has no plan as what to do if a tornado were to impact their community. If they do, they aren't communicating this with their kids. That's a shame, for many are home alone till their parents come home in the early evening.
 
Jeff Snyder said:
The "warnings found lacking" is at the lowest part of the "warning chain" -- how to get warnings from "officials" to the people. Unfortunately, the failure of this seems to be increasingly becoming an issue with the common citizens, as opposed to officials not issuing a tornado warning or local media not receiving that warning.
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Actually, I don't think it's an "increasing" issue. I don't think it's anymore of a problem now than 20 years ago. It's just with the abundance of news sources on TV and online, there are more sound-bytes of people saying, "We had no warning." And all it takes is one person to say "We had no warning" to get the talking heads on TV or print going.

As most of us are quite aware, this is not a new problem. In fact, I think the major push surrounding NWR (someone correct me if I'm wrong) came about because of the 1991 Andover, KS, event. I remember watching dash-cam video of a law enforcement official driving through the Golden Spur Mobile Home Park blaring his sirens and verbalizing the warning over his loudspeaker. As he turns into the mobile home park, you can see the right edge of the tornado and where it meets the cloud base in the background...yet, you see people walking their dogs, sitting outside, and just going about their business.

Most of the deaths were partially attributed to the fact that people waited for sirens to be sounded...I can't remember if they didn't sound, or if there just weren't any.

Fortunately, these types of massive severe weather events don't take place on a frequent basis. UN-fortunately, that pretty much means that we'll always have this situation. Sure, we can start this campaign, and we might reach some people. But, for those that weren't directly (or indirectly) affected by this, it will pretty much go in one ear and out the other.

Dissemination of the warnings will ALWAYS be the problem. We can educate people until we are blue in the face, but they still have to take action on their own. Since 90% of people are not frequently affected by these events, most won't take action.

I don't mean to sound like a pessimist, and I like to give people the benefit of the doubt. But in my experience, people that don't live in areas prone to severe weather will pay little attention to preparing for such an event...until something happens near or to them.

I equate it to people in the South not being prepared to drive on ice or snow. Most people down here figure it's an infrequent occurrence, so why be worried about it?
 
Hello,

I am a new member (my first post), who has been silently monitoring and learning from you, so I can satisfy a long time fascination with the weather (since as a child in KS). I felt compelled to respond to this thread because I am a public school teacher. I would love to see you visiting the schools like the fire and police departments do each year.

I agree many people handle weather with ignorance but more likely with a sense of “It won’t happen to me†attitude. So learning how to handle any severe weather must come through the youth. Teaching children is not a quick fix or 100% fool proof but one that works. See the evidence in this forum all the time.

In KS, weather is part of the curriculum from kdg to high school (but presented differently because each teacher or district gives it different emphasis like the teacher mentioned earlier). I suggest speaking w/ students during the week of a school tornado drill to increase the impact and relevancy. Show how your technology, education, and observations, keeps you and them safe. Have them practice safety procedures with you or do experiments that capture their curiosity and interest (ie previous post of movie). The local fire departments do this each year in Kdg or 3rd grade. It would be great if you became a staple in the annual planning for 2nd and 4th or 5th grades (This will depend upon the local districts emphasis.) If you wanted a more scientific and data oriented discussion, contact the junior high and high school science teachers, I’m sure they would love to have you.

If you as a professional decide to take it to the schools, in this age of NCLB (No Child Left Behind), you need to know the curriculum standards that are a part of your presentation. If you are aware of the science standards (in KS Standards 4-6 http://www.ksde.org/Default.aspx?tabid=144 or NSTA http://www.nap.edu/readingroom/books/nses/html/ ), then you will be more quickly accepted because you’re reinforcing the teacher’s goals before assessments. Teachers have to tie everything they do to a curricular standard in public schools. Teachers love guests speakers, it brings relevancy/urgency to the students and they listen to the “expertsâ€.

Though I am a teacher and love the weather, the students will listen and heed your warnings before mine because you are the “expertâ€. Thanks for what you are already doing and hope some of you consider doing a small presentation in your local school(s). I would gladly have you come talk to my students.:)
 
I think the idea behind more severe weather education in schools is indeed a noble cause, but a rather lofty goal on a nationwide level. As another poster already stated, schools are strapped thin with curriculum options as it is. Society wants schools to take on greater roles as social educators, something that ideally should be getting done at home.

Having the NWS visit schools is a great idea, but again is probably unrealistic, given the number of schools in most NWS CWFAs. If I recall, the NWS already publishes literature that is aimed at educating young children (i.e Owlie Skywarn books).

I've always educated my geography students on the structure and dangers of severe weather, but I don't teach a required class either. I think this is another problem at upper class levels, because students who take geography and weather courses are taking these classes as electives. I've always included a lesson on the uses and practicality of weather radios too.

How many schools DO NOT have adequate severe weather preparation plans in place? How many schools do not utilize weather radios? Perhaps the first step would be educating administrators and teachers on severe weather protocalls, which could then be passed along to students. Severe weather awareness week is a great time to infuse school curriculum with severe weather information, but it's going to be an interesting competition with state and national standards and goals.

The best solution at this point might be asking those of you who are reading this thread to take some time and make some contacts with your local elementary or middle schools. See if you can get in to make a presentation and share your knowledge of severe weather safety with the students. It's more likely to be met with success than infusing already bogged down curriculum programs with more material, as important as you and I feel severe weather awareness really is.
 
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