FORECASTS: 1/28/10 - Southern/Central Plains Winter Storm

[Andrew Francis]

Several have commented (some on the REPORTS thread) about the dry-slotting coming into the AMA area. That is true, but if you look at the national radar loop you can also see that there is a lot of precipitation out to the southwest associated with the trailing disturbances. This covers a good deal of NM and even well down into Mexico, so I would think that as this progresses eastward/northeastward that with time some of that dry slotting will fill in again. Maybe I'm missing something, but I would not call this storm over just yet for the panhandle.

Yup, the dry slot is going to erode away when the system wraps back around and kind of 're-anchors down'. I can see the panhandle getting hit with wrap around event tonight with the storm pulling more east.


SW OK is getting creamed, still getting light FRZA here in Central OK. I can see the glaze on everything elevated.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Fredrick has had "bright banding" not just out at a set distance, but also right on top of it for a good chunk of the day. I'm sure it has affected things some, but I doubt a whole lot for that stripe from Clinton to Lawton. I could see that stripe being more than just bright banding...given the higher totals near Fredrick's radar as well as how it is "widening" now on Norman's radar. Not saying the estimates aren't being overdone, but I think that location max probably has something to it worth checking out post-storm. The stripe is in the same location on both radars(Clinton to Lawton), though not exactly the same distance from either. Seems the center stripe distance to radar is off enough between the two that there would be something more to that location than bright banding. But perhaps not I guess.

http://kamala.cod.edu/ok/

Does OUN not do storm reports like others, or just no one reporting? I see Tulsa has had some.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/sfc_ict.gif

Bad day in Clinton now for sure! LOL

I guess I should point it out for anyone that missed it. Just a 115 knot wind was all lol. Hell that speed would probably be so fast it would rip the ice off and leave the trees alone.

 

[Karen Politte]

Some great analyses, Tim. I sure wish we were getting some of that winter wx...

Just before I read your post, I had noticed how poorly the RUC was handling today's precip. patterns amongst other things. It really seems to suck with winter wx. AR has had intermittent precip almost all day so far with not one model actually picking up on it......although it is such a small signature it's not that surprising.

Well technically AR has had it's first taste of this event - Fayetteville is reporting good ol' "ice needles" whatever the heck they are......so maybe this will just be the start of it...

K.

 

[Chris Vagasky]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/sfc_ict.gif

Bad day in Clinton now for sure! LOL

From what I'm aware, CSM's ASOS has a sonic anemometer...and that particular version of the SA has issues when in contact with freezing precipitation...

 

[David Mikulec]

I can handle the snow, and I'm looking forward to it here (forecast 2-5"). Freezing rain? No thank you. We were dealing with that a year ago.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Since we've had all of the special soundings in this thread so far, I'm tossing in the 21Z too. This was about the time we had the sleet changeover. Looks like we had to thicken that cold layer all the way to 1900 ft deep.

As of 0000Z we're in the "clear slot", and we're getting enough sunlight through to turn the layers into shades of red and pink. I guess this is all she wrote unless we get some of the wraparound tomorrow morning.

Tim

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Could I still expect 4-6" in. in NE OK? We currently have no snow in Hulbert. Really windy and icy.

 

[Andrew Francis]

This system is very strange. I have no idea what to expect when the wrap around of the low moves across OK...

The gigantic dry slot looks so solid, it is hard to believe anything else would fall from the sky.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

There's more on the way for tomorrow. The new NAM is bringing a couple of waves up the back side of the TX frontal boundary overnight. You can already see this new feature coming together with the expanding precip area currently in Sanderson-Ozona-Fort Stockton. I guess this wasn't resolved well on earlier runs since the features were in old Mexico. In any case this should bring plenty of mid-level lift into ABI-FTW late tonight and into Oklahoma tomorrow. I'm not sure how this will couple with the low-level cold conveyor belt / wraparound (maybe the latter will kick in as the wave departs), but suffice it to say Friday will be INTERESTING across much of Oklahoma.

And as it is, the 700 mb low is dragging its heels transiting the area, so we're not out of the woods for another 24 hours.

Tim

 

[John Massura]

Weirdness continues...

New development on the TLX radar to the west, and the leading edge is now over Norman, with light/moderate freezing rain beginning within the past 5 minutes. Frederick radar signature seems to indicate that most of the area is snow, and only the leading edge of the precip near the OKC area is not, but who knows...

 

[Andrew Francis]

I can confirm, north of OKC, it is light freezing rain again.

 

[Chris Vagasky]

Freezing rain in Norman.

 

[Jason Bolt]

While bands within the system have moved northeast, the system as a whole seems to not have moved much this evening. Is that a dry slot over extreme northern OK southern KS? I'm not that up on winter forecasting, etc. but it seems at least the radar isn't showing anything north of roughly a Bentonville, AR to Miami OK to Bartlesvill OK line but just south has been getting precip for quite a while. Is this a dry slot thing, a radar thing?

EDIT: I see the precip has now pushed a little north, but seems to have pushed a clear area north in front of it. I'm just trying to understand what' causing the clearing.

 

[Andrew Francis]

I would almost say it is @ times moderate freezing rain here in Edmond. It is definitely glazing on top of our already compacted assortment of ice and sleet.

I took walk outside a bit ago and the roads are a solid pack of ice. The sleet somewhat melted as it got dark, and it is now frozen solid. Also it is very loud outside with the trees cracking in the wind.

It looks like the precip is trying to ramp back up in SW TX and expand north/northwest and it is aiding in the feed of the return moisture here in SW and C OK.

 

[D. Hayes]

As of midnight just east of Wichita has been rather boring as usual thanks to the Wichita Wall. So far we've had 1/8" of sleet/snow mix if that. That dry slot better get moving if we're going to collect 5" before morning.

it's now 2:40am and still no changes here just a few flurries.