FORECASTS: 1/28/10 - Southern/Central Plains Winter Storm

[Brendon Lindsey]

Well everyone, thats what we have the next two runs for! This is the first run that has had the system on land and that we have been able to send baloons up into. Maybe the more it progresses it will speed up. There is no reason behind this but I hope 18 and 0 go back to what they looked like yesterday =) I dont want school on Friday / but then again I dont want to be without power...

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

The latest RUC is showing the front from the North dropping a little bit faster than the other two models. Just giving some of those other people that are wanting it to move back to the SE some hope.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

Interesting tidbit from LSX:
.MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NWD WITH EXTENT OF PCPN
AND CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW NOW EXPECTED
ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. THESE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A DIGGING
SYSTEM /AS SEEN ON SAT IMAGERY/ AND WITH THE ANTICIPATED FAVORABLE JET
COUPLING THAT WILL AID IN NWD TRANSPORT OF SNOW. THE CONCERN HERE IS
THAT THE MODELS MAY NOT CATCH ON TO THE ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL MO AND SUBSEQUENT NWD TRANSPORT OF SNOW UNTIL IT IS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. OFFICE DISCUSSION OF THIS SYSTEM LED TO
COMPARISONS WITH A SIMILAR SYSTEM IN DECEMBER 2002 WHERE JET
COUPLING PLAYED A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN TRANSPORTING SNOW FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE MODELS INITIALLY INDICATED. BECAUSE OF THIS...I AM
RELUCTANT TO REDUCE POPS FARTHER NORTH AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER N THAN
WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE CURRENT FCST.

If the trough deepens this storm could become a threat to the St. Louis metro area. Especially if it slows. I am not holding my breath on this but it was a surprise to read.

 

[Jerry Prsha]

Interesting tidbit from LSX:
.MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NWD WITH EXTENT OF PCPN
AND CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW NOW EXPECTED
ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. THESE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A DIGGING
SYSTEM /AS SEEN ON SAT IMAGERY/ AND WITH THE ANTICIPATED FAVORABLE JET
COUPLING THAT WILL AID IN NWD TRANSPORT OF SNOW. THE CONCERN HERE IS
THAT THE MODELS MAY NOT CATCH ON TO THE ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT
OVER CENTRAL MO AND SUBSEQUENT NWD TRANSPORT OF SNOW UNTIL IT IS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING. OFFICE DISCUSSION OF THIS SYSTEM LED TO
COMPARISONS WITH A SIMILAR SYSTEM IN DECEMBER 2002 WHERE JET
COUPLING PLAYED A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN TRANSPORTING SNOW FARTHER
NORTH THAN THE MODELS INITIALLY INDICATED. BECAUSE OF THIS...I AM
RELUCTANT TO REDUCE POPS FARTHER NORTH AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER N THAN
WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE CURRENT FCST.

If the trough deepens this storm could become a threat to the St. Louis metro area. Especially if it slows. I am not holding my breath on this but it was a surprise to read.

I was just about to post this same thing Kevin. You beat me to it. The GFS is starting to agree on those statements I believe...

Good thing I have the right tires on the Jeep...

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

I was just about to post this same thing Kevin. You beat me to it. The GFS is starting to agree on those statements I believe...

Good thing I have the right tires on the Jeep...

What does that statement mean for NE Oklahoma N. of I-40?

 

[mark plate]

What does that statement mean for NE Oklahoma N. of I-40?

much more ice and much less snow

 

[Andrew Francis]

I can totally see us here in central OK getting sleet and ice then getting dryslotted with hardly any snow.

Hoping for a sinking of the low back to the south.

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Well the NWS Tulsa has changed the graphical forecast and now depicting a catastrophic icing event... things will change but this is a startling image...

They are dropping their snowfall amounts also...

 

[Chris Sokol]

Does anybody know of a model graphic from the Sperry Ice Model for Central Oklahoma?

 

[sdienst]

http://utility.mesonet.org/

Under Winter Tab

 

[Todd Friskey]

I just listened to the briefing on my weather radio from NWSO Springfield at 1305. Meteorologist Doug Cramer emphasized they are not forecasting any ice storm for SW MO and SE KS in their CWA. It looks like more of a heavy snow event? Looking at those posted graphical forecast images from Tulsa makes me wonder about far SW MO and extreme SE KS? I've too have been watching this scenario (models) and trying to make my own forecast. If I post what I think, I'll probably jinx it.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

It's always interesting to me to watch ice forecasts. It's almost like 3/4+ inches is as likely as an F5 tornado happening to some. OUN says 1/4-1/2. Tulsa at least says up to 1 inch, but even that seems sort of off given an "up to" comment ahead of it. Then I glanced at a couple OKC tv stations and saw one with a big 1-2 inch ice area and another with a 1-2.5 inch ice swath. Up here our TV would probably be very similar to whatever the NWS is saying...which almost without fails seems to be conservative. Which ok that is fine, but to me it seems with these events they always end up higher with ice(heavy precip expected from strong overrunning with cold air moving in). Often it's several folds higher. You don't even need a long duration event with precip types not moving much, like an inverted trough that doesn't budge for a couple days as a big storm moves out. The last one I saw in western IA dumped 1.5 inches of ice/freezing rain in an extremely short amount of time. Bam, whole areas toast.

 

[Nate Gillson]

The last one I saw in western IA dumped 1.5 inches of ice/freezing rain in an extremely short amount of time. Bam, whole areas toast.

Reminds me of February 24, 2007. 1 inch of freezing rain in less than 8 hours.

Anyways, huge area of ice on the HPC day 2 ice outlook:

 

[Karen Politte]

Anyways, huge area of ice on the HPC day 2 ice outlook:

That's true, but bear in mind that that is a probabilistic chart and - as such - the probabilities are low-moderate for significant icing. As I read it, there is only a 40% or lower chance that anywhere involved with this upcoming storm is going to see 0.25" of ice or more. While I know that a very small amount of ice can spell disaster - I wouldn't really call that map an incoming calamity. None of it is a certain - it's only probabilistic (and still two days out!).

KP

 

[mark plate]

It's always interesting to me to watch ice forecasts. It's almost like 3/4+ inches is as likely as an F5 tornado happening to some. OUN says 1/4-1/2. Tulsa at least says up to 1 inch, but even that seems sort of off given an "up to" comment ahead of it. Then I glanced at a couple OKC tv stations and saw one with a big 1-2 inch ice area and another with a 1-2.5 inch ice swath. Up here our TV would probably be very similar to whatever the NWS is saying...which almost without fails seems to be conservative. Which ok that is fine, but to me it seems with these events they always end up higher with ice(heavy precip expected from strong overrunning with cold air moving in). Often it's several folds higher. You don't even need a long duration event with precip types not moving much, like an inverted trough that doesn't budge for a couple days as a big storm moves out. The last one I saw in western IA dumped 1.5 inches of ice/freezing rain in an extremely short amount of time. Bam, whole areas toast.

Sleet could really cut into the ice accumulations in Oklahoma...that's why an inch is the current max amount forecast.