The "fun" part of extending lead times for warnings is dealing with new storms and complex storm interactions. On 10 May, you would have to issue a forecast envelope with at least low tornado probabilities as soon as cumulus clouds developed SW of Norman to get even 45 minutes of lead time. That's a much different problem than extrapolating the future location of an efficient tornado producing storm. If you consider all of the complex storm interactions we often see, these sort of warnings will have to be updated on a 5-10 minute cycle.
I think we can do a better job right now in issuing more continuous warnings with more even lead time. These discrete polygons that still trace out counties don't add much of anything to the process. I'd prefer to see almost all warnings adjusted every 10-15 minutes, with warning areas going out no more than 30 minutes. The goal would be more fluid warnings with more even lead time across all areas in the warning. Such information can be conveyed rather easily via TV/radio, but could be more of a challenge with the current NWR setup. More frequent warning adjustments, smaller warning areas (in most situations), and more even lead time would seem to help. Ultimately, good warnings for severe storms should look something like the storms themselves. If you loop radar and warnings right now, you get a distinctly different impression.
Accomplishing those goals would take us a step closer to the future warning goals, without introducing any new products.
