Forecasting Hurricanes

B Ozanne

May 3, 2004
Does anybody know what model does a bette job at forecasting hurricanes and why?

I'm not concerned with the mesoscale models, just the global (GFS, ukmet, European, and Canadian)

Does anybody have links to a discussion of some of the common problems of the major models? Their biases, weaknesses, and strengths?
The GFS model tends to develop every little area of low pressure, although NOGAPS seems to do well as far as forecasting the winds over the water and that is the model that the Weather Research Center uses in a lot of their hurricane forecasts.
I like the GFS for long range and the ECMWF for the medium range. I'm not sure for short range, maybe GFDL?

I don't know if this is a global model, but the NHC says the FSU Superensemble is the best. (Actually I don't even know if it is a model). But it is not available to the public.