• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

Forecasting Hurricanes

B Ozanne

EF5
Joined
May 3, 2004
Messages
1,740
Location
Connecticut
Does anybody know what model does a bette job at forecasting hurricanes and why?

I'm not concerned with the mesoscale models, just the global (GFS, ukmet, European, and Canadian)

Does anybody have links to a discussion of some of the common problems of the major models? Their biases, weaknesses, and strengths?
 
The GFS model tends to develop every little area of low pressure, although NOGAPS seems to do well as far as forecasting the winds over the water and that is the model that the Weather Research Center uses in a lot of their hurricane forecasts.
 
I like the GFS for long range and the ECMWF for the medium range. I'm not sure for short range, maybe GFDL?

I don't know if this is a global model, but the NHC says the FSU Superensemble is the best. (Actually I don't even know if it is a model). But it is not available to the public.
 
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