Forecasting Book

[BBauer]

Hi, I have been around the site for awhile and I have learned many things. I have used many of the educational resources recommended to learn about severe storm structure, thunderstorm development/ingredients, etc. I was curious how helpful Tim Vasquez's book Severe Storm Forecasting might be for me. I was considering his storm chasing handbook but I think I want a little more detail about trying to piece together a forecast. At this point I have a basic understanding of what goes into a forecast like CAPE, triggering mechanisms, shear, dew point, etc. I also understand with some detail the principles themselves, but when I head to a site like twister data I am finding it hard to piece it all together as far as timing and location of all the variables etc. I guess I'm looking for a systematic approach that is simple enough for me to understand. Maybe I'm asking to be spoon fed too much. Would his book be helpful for the actual application of the principles I have already learned?

 

[Ben Holcomb]

I think it'd help some, but I also think experience is the best teacher. Actually getting out and learning by experience is the best way to start understanding it all together.

 

[Frank Kienast]

One thing I find that helps me gain a better understanding is reading the forecast discussions put out by local NWS offices located in the area of interest. These give the reasoning behind the forecasts, at a fairly technical level. I try to understand and follow their reasoning.

I do have Tim Vasquez's book and it is good as well. And up to date with practical information on radar, etc (2009).

The Storm Structure 101 video that produced by one of the members here is also very good. There is a thread on it here: http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?25093-Storm-Structure-101-Educational-DVD. It mostly covers smaller scale processes close to the storm itself, but some synoptic info is also included.

 

[Wes Carter]

I've found that there really is no one place where you can learn everything that you need to know. Tim V's books are great, but no one of them really gives you everything you need to know in a step by step manner. And there is a good reason for that in my opinion: There are so many different setups where supercells can form that there really is no way to just give a step by step method. I've been chasing since 2006 and I still have so much to learn it's sometimes overwhelming. I have all of Tim V's books and I have read a lot in the Stormtrack library as well as Jeff Haby's site. But where I have learned the most is from chasing with some experienced chasers such as Brian McNoldy, Chris Howell, Nancy Bose, and Allan Detrich. Also, if you pop into Stormtrack chat every now and then you will learn a lot. I like to pop in and just lurk when Skip Talbot, Rob Hurkes, Nick Nolte, and some of the others get into in-depth conversations. I used to chime in and ask questions, but I found that if I just let them go I will learn more about their methodology. I just keep another window open and Google some of the stuff that's over my head. I have learned quite a bit from those guys.

One other place I forgot to mention is the MetEd/Ucar site. There are free courses you can take there that are awesome. I had a bit of trouble understanding Skew-T's and hodographs until I took their courses. They are awesome.

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

You could always try my book. Its intended for newer storm chasers and includes some very basic forecasting info, chasing techniques, tools to use, etc. If interested, the link is in my signature . It should help with figuring out what to look for on TwisterData and other sites...

 

[BBauer]

Thanks for all the replies. Well its good to know its not easy (systematic) to figure out a forecast. In some of my free time over the off season I'll try to brush up on all the different parameters. Then once things fire up again I'll try to understand the models better and match them to the SPC forecasts and what actually happens during severe weather events. Thanks for the additional resources and suggestions. It is indeed overwhelming.

Maybe this is a weird question but is there any program where you can plug in and tweak all the variables and then watch animated radar and see how the storm might play out? That sounds sort of sophisticated but it would be a fun game to create your own parameters then watch the fireworks ha ha. Sort of like an HRRR that you could manipulate. Anyway, I think something like that would be helpful and fun.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'll second Wes's comment on the MetEd site. I've found some of it to be above my head, but there's plenty that is accessible, well-produced, and very helpful.

As for Tim's book, Severe Storm Forecasting, I purchased it quite recently and am in the process of reading it. I would definitely recommend it--it's excellent. For one thing, it's up to date, marshaling current knowledge. For another, I like how it brings together and correlates a lot of information in one place, some of which you might not readily uncover otherwise. Tim's comments on anvil-shadow baroclinicity, for instance, are probably no news to some, but this is the first I've heard on the subject.

I fully agree with the observation that knowledge is going to come from lots of directions. No one source is going to provide one-stop shopping.

 

[Jason Foster]

And remember.....even if some of it is over-your-head now, the pieces might come together down the line. I've found this to be the case for me. I go to a ton of AMS meetings, talk (well mostly listen) to pros, and watch presentations I don't understand at first, but over time, it's funny how I see how things inter-relate. Ingest as much as you can....and yes...that means field experience too.