First-Ever Tornado Warning for San Francisco

[Mike Smith]

Here's a new one: a tornado warning was issued for the City of San Francisco very early this morning. The local NWS says it was the first-ever in the history of the city.
Per Poweroutage.us, there were ~15,000 homes and businesses without power at the peak. Quite a few trees were reported down.

The radar loop clearly slowed an anticyclonically rotating storm that moved across the city. I have an image from right before the warning was issued here: Tornado Warning For....San Francisco?!

Unfortunately, the local NWS was operating the radar at seven-minute intervals. While I realize this is SFO, it is ridiculous to have the radar on that mode when strong storms are in the area, tornado or no.

I have more comments and images here: Tornado Warning For....San Francisco?!

 

[Mike Smith]

And -- amazingly -- SFO NWS misses an obvious, destructive, tornado this afternoon.

NWS Misses an Obvious Tornado Warning in Northern California

Earlier this afternoon, I happened to look at the San Francisco-area radar (it was still on that radar from this morning) and I was shocked ...

www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com

 

[Mike Smith]

With regard to the Scotts Valley Tornado (post immediately above), one of our 'favorite' comments.

"Possible"..... r-i-g-h-t.

 

[Blake Naftel]

Another factor to consider is that NWS SFO was not up to par with rapidly evolving tornado situations partly due to a younger, inexperienced staff, few events of such caliber in the Northern California CWA and seven minute radar scan intervals. It happens even in geographic regions with higher tornado frequency.

On the news beat, what I always get a chuckle about on the 'possible' or 'alleged' legal disclaimers tagged onto such viewer videos are the oft ridiculous source names supers that broadcast stations must legally superimpose when airing or sharing videos, i.e. "Courtesy: X/JoeSchmuckatelli316 ' or 'TikTok/IAmBatman5687'.

Blake

 

[William Monfredo]

The Scotts Valley, CA storm videos look like some of the very best I've seen from the Golden State. Kodak managed to get box cameras or "Brownies" into the hands of the masses providing easy photography for everyone more than 100 years ago. Today, we know that Apple and other phone companies have put picture and video capabilities into the pockets of most everybody. Talk about the changing shape of "storm chasing" or documenting when someone in CA doesn't have to do hardly anything but pull out their phone and press a button on a screen.

 

[Mike Smith]

partly due to a younger, inexperienced staff, few events of such caliber in the Northern California CWA and seven minute radar scan intervals.

But, it isn't confined to Northern California. June 8, 2022, at ~1:20am, an EF-1 cut across south Kansas City that was mostly unwarned. And, even though there was a severe thunderstorm watch that said "one or two tornadoes possible" and the EAX office had issued a SVR with a "tornado possible" tag, they left their radar on seven minute intervals! And, the TDWR was down when the tornado first touched down (although it came back up during the storm).

It is worth emphasizing that they missed the lofted debris.

Regarding the Overnight Tornado Situation in the Kansas City Area

Johnson Co. Kansas tornado damage Photo by my brother, Mark Smith Fifteen years ago, the United States had an excellent tornado warning prog...

www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com

The level of tornado warning training in the NWS is poor.

 

[Blake Naftel]

But, it isn't confined to Northern California. June 8, 2022, at ~1:20am, an EF-1 cut across south Kansas City that was mostly unwarned. And, even though there was a severe thunderstorm watch that said "one or two tornadoes possible" and the EAX office had issued a SVR with a "tornado possible" tag, they left their radar on seven minute intervals! And, the TDWR was down when the tornado first touched down (although it came back up during the storm).

It is worth emphasizing that they missed the lofted debris.

Regarding the Overnight Tornado Situation in the Kansas City Area

Johnson Co. Kansas tornado damage Photo by my brother, Mark Smith Fifteen years ago, the United States had an excellent tornado warning prog...

www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com

The level of tornado warning training in the NWS is poor.

Agree, Mike in regards to overall NWS "tornado warning training" being "poor" per conversations I've had with former colleagues in local offices. Another factor, EF-1 tornadoes are typically fast and can often reach a mature stage within the 7 minute WSR 88D scan lag. This happened in Southern Kent County, Michigan on 6-July-2014. The storm was electric as so many tornado producing supercells visually are. I was not "chasing" but could see the storm from where I lived in East Grand Rapids at the time. It was also my weekend away from work at WWMT, so my attention towards the event was focused on life/family at the time. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued, but the tornado warning was only issued after the tornado was on the ground. Aka, the 7-8 June 1984 Barneveld, Wisconsin effect, the later example being a worst case scenario in the pre-Doppler era. The 28-August-1990 Plainfield, Illinois event also comes to mind, again, pre Doppler.

Pardon my ignorance, but are there any upgrades or advancement inbound to improve Doppler Radar WSR-88D radar return speed that you are aware of?

Not to broad bush the "training" opinion as there are age and experience discrepancies in every industry, but when you are employed in an industry tasked with providing a public service with effective severe weather warnings and awareness, you must have skilled radar meteorologists ready to step in and make a call verses fear of taking a conservative approach to err on the safe side. This goes for all broadcast and streamer meteorologists, weather presenters and public figures that have a paid duty to alert the public, sans hype, and with beneficial information.

Blake


BLAKE WILLIAM NAFTEL
Artist, Comedy Writer, Meteorologist

616.643.7762
blakenaftel.com
threereelfilms.com

 

[Mike Smith]

Pardon my ignorance, but are there any upgrades or advancement inbound to improve Doppler Radar WSR-88D radar return speed that you are aware of?

The radar is capable of being operated at 80 second intervals but the NWS meteorologists these days are often so poorly trained they don't think of switching it to a 120 second or 80 second mode.

FWIW, please read this: The Future of NOAA and the National Weather Service, Part I

 

[Mike Smith]

Just learned this morning that AccuWeather provided a tornado warning to its clients in Scotts Valley 16 minutes in advance.

This highlights the need to radically change the way meteorologists are trained and educated:

A Posting For Meteorologists - The Future of Forecasting

2022 tornado, image by Ben Holcomb The NWS did not provide an advance warning of this Kansas tornado as the tornado was in progress when th...

www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com

 

[Blake Naftel]

Just learned this morning that AccuWeather provided a tornado warning to its clients in Scotts Valley 16 minutes in advance.

This highlights the need to radically change the way meteorologists are trained and educated:

A Posting For Meteorologists - The Future of Forecasting

2022 tornado, image by Ben Holcomb The NWS did not provide an advance warning of this Kansas tornado as the tornado was in progress when th...

www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com

Ah yes, the old AccuWeather "tornado warning" ploy Recently I just learned that AW fuses it's graphics package from the Farmers Almanac, of which it also partially sponsors to afford Dr. Joel another vintage barometer for his upstairs office meeting room space.

Blake


BLAKE WILLIAM NAFTEL
Artist, Comedy Writer, Meteorologist

616.643.7762
blakenaftel.com
threereelfilms.com

 

[Mike Smith]

Ah yes, the old AccuWeather "tornado warning" ploy

Blake, I don't know what this means. Could you explain?

I ran the AW ICT office from 2006 to 2018 and I assure you we issued tornado warnings for our clients that were completely independent of the NWS's.

 

[James K]

The radar is capable of being operated at 80 second intervals but the NWS meteorologists these days are often so poorly trained they don't think of switching it to a 120 second or 80 second mode.

Obviously there are great advantages of having radar data refreshed more often in a rapidly-evolving storm, but just out of curiosity, are there any reasons not to to put it in those faster modes? Like do they have to "give up" something to make up for the shorter intervals? Or does it simply make the dish spin faster?

 

[Mike Smith]

Like do they have to "give up" something to make up for the shorter intervals? Or does it simply make the dish spin faster?

Great question!

The biggest delay in NWS radar data is the multiple tilts per cycle. Some of those were put in because, the NWS thought, aviation would want the, for example, strongest echo in a given layer (e.g., strongest echo between 10,000 and 20,000' MSL). There were grand plans to use Spectrum Width and ~15 slices from each radar to create a National Turbulence Chart, et cetera. Turns out that, after seeing the products in real time, aviation interests didn't care for them. I know several pilots, both general aviation and commercial, and none use those products at all.

The NWS believes it is necessary to do multiple tilts to create better tornado warnings and/or flood warnings. However, I have never seen the benefit of looking up 5 degrees or more to estimate rainfall or see a tornado unless the latter is very close to the radar.

So, I think it would be better, on days when tornadoes or flooding is expected, to run the radar at the lowest two tilts only (baring beam blocks at those angles). Even in the 70's, we had no problem getting unsmeared data on our WSR-74C at 3 rpm (20 seconds between 360° images). If the NWS wanted the two lowest angles, it could (using today's faster computers) probably run the antenna at 4 rpm (15 seconds) and have fresh data from the lowest two angles every 30 seconds. I believe this would yield better data for tornado/flash flood warnings that looking way up in the storm.

The above assumes we are talking about new radars. I don't know the implications of always running the 88D's at a faster rotational speed versus the wear on the mechanical mechanisms.

If we get new radars, there's no reason to ever run them slower than updates every two minutes.

 

[Blake Naftel]

Blake, I don't know what this means. Could you explain?

I ran the AW ICT office from 2006 to 2018 and I assure you we issued tornado warnings for our clients that were completely independent of the NWS's.

Mike, my comment was a joke pulled from an obscure reference to a Peter Sellers line from the 1964 film 'A Shot In The Dark'.

I'm well aware of the independent client based AW tornado warnings in your time with that organization.

Blake