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FCST: 12/16-17/08 - Great Plains winter event

The models underestimated this front quite significantly as it came through almost 12 hours quicker then forecasted 24 to 48 hours out. I caught this shot as the front came through Southern Dallas County, TX. I'm hoping to get a tripod for Christmas ;) The black you see is clear sky with the front obviously dictated by the "wall" of clouds. This looked more like a dust storm approaching then a cold front.
I also apologize if this image is meant to be in a report thread. I read the forum rules for this forum and understood that I did not need to make a separate thread, as it only is one picture. Click the image for a higher resolution picture.
 
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Maybe this should be in a separate thread but...

The Midsouth is bracing for a major ice storm tonight. Over half an inch of ice seems possible, even likely in some areas. Friends in Memphis tell me its a madhouse right now w/ everyone buying up supplies, food, sand, etc. I lived thru "Hurricane Elvis" 7 years ago, and we were without power for two weeks from that storm. Memphis is not a city well prepared for a major ice storm, imo. We could easily be looking at hundreds of thousands without power just in the city. Not good.
 
Well, Memphis definitely doesn't do ice well, that's for sure. I work downtown Memphis, and folks have been hyped up since yesterday about this event. The local Memphis schools even let out 2 hours early, which was ridiculous considering how obvious it was that there wouldn't be any precip in the area until evening, even if that soon.

I've not seen any eastward progression of the corridor of rain that has been running through AR all day. It's pretty much been on that same path all day long. The RUC wasn't showing any forecasted precip in that area either earlier today, but it did have a good handle on the temps, though a bit slow with the cool down. Its upper 20s here now, but the precip is still well off to the west. Is it ever going to start pushing east??

Scott
 
Winter storm on Tuesday - Upper Midwest

A very active and cold pattern will continue through this week. A winter storm will bring several inches of snow to parts of the Upper Midwest starting Tuesday morning. Snowfall will end in most locations by late Tuesday evening. Looking ahead, another storm could bring freezing rain and several inches of snow to the same areas on Thursday. The following are forecasts for specific locations in Minnesota and eastern Iowa for Tuesday’s event

Twin Cities, MN:
Snow will start at 12:30 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 3.0 inches.

St. Cloud, MN:
Snow will start at 1 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 2.0 inches.

Duluth, MN:
Snow will start at 3 PM Tuesday and accumulate to 1.4 inches.

Cedar Rapids (Eastern IA Airport), IA:
Snow will start at 11:30 AM Tuesday and accumulate to 4.6 inches.

Iowa City, IA:
Snow will start at 11:30 AM Tuesday and accumulate to 4.3 inches.

Marengo, IA:
Snow will start at 11 AM Tuesday and accumulate to 4.2 inches.

North Linn Co. (Paris and Coggon), IA:
Snow will start at 11:30 AM Tuesday and accumulate to 4.5 inches.

Union, IA:
Snow will start at 9:30 AM Tuesday and accumulate to 4.2 inches.

Discussion:
A fast moving upper-level system will bring several inches of snow to the Upper Midwest beginning Tuesday morning. Models disagree slightly on the trajectory of the H7 SHRTWV from NERN CO on 12Z, 12/15; into WI 12Z, 12/16; with the GFS too progressive with the the SREF and European models slower and more reasonable. The latest WRF appears to take the mid-level forcing and strongest precipitation too far S. Curiously, the 00Z WRF has not initialized well to H7 upstream features over AZ and NM. Moisture is a concern as it appears as though models are over ambitious. An examination of FWD, OUN, SGF, and LZK upstream soundings indicates impressive moisture in the H9-H7 layer. Assuming a distance of 300 mi to CNTRL IA and a 30kt LLJ, moisture could reach the area in ten hours. Therefore, the moisture return FCST by guidance appears plausible.

By late morning Tuesday, a healthy shot of isentropic upglide along the 290K – 295K SFCs develops from NRN IA into CNTRL MN with mixing ratios AOB 4g/kg indicated. The H85 open wave is FCST to track E along the IA/MO border Tuesday afternoon through the evening hours while an ill-defined SFC boundary extending E, from low-pressure over SERN CO, slowly strengthens over SRN MO. Impressive PVA and an associated UVM bulls-eye of -10ub/s develops near OAX at 15Z and then tracks ENE to near DBQ by 22Z. Lift is enhanced beneath the left-exit region of a 150kt H3 streak. An impressive elevated frontogenetical band translates across the area between US-30 and US-20 during the afternoon with some degree of conditional instability possible. Finally, a deformation zone lingers over SRN MN into early Wednesday morning while prolonging precipitation.

Looking at SNWFL totals, an 18:1 to 20:1 ratio seems reasonable in most areas except S of I-80 where ratios should be slightly less. Despite the arctic AMS at the SFC, healthy moisture is available with the region at the nose of a 40 LLJ overrunning a sharp H8-H7 baroclinic zone. FCST soundings also indicate strongest lift occurring within the dendritic snow growth zone, with PW increasing to 0.5 inches along with mixing ratios in the 3-4 g/kg range. FCST cross sections do not suggest banding structures except perhaps along the aforementioned frontogenetical band. Outside of this area, there should not be enhanced precipitation. There will be no accumulating ice with this system, and blowing S should not be a problem with winds remaining AOB 10 mph. Some ZL will be possible in ERN IA following the exit of the S Tuesday night as soundings dry out mid-levels but retain moisture below H8.

- bill

9:50 PM CST, 12/15/08
 
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Tim Jones and I are meeting up at the station at ~8am tomorrow to track this storm coming in. My home is in NW Linn county, and at the station in Cedar Rapids, is smack dab in the middle of Linn.

We're looking as to where to go track this storm in, but looks to be close to home, possibly a bit south and west. Our chief meteorologist is predicting 4-6" locally. We'll be streaming via SevereStudios as soon as the snow starts coming down. Add in a little Ice afterwards and it's going to be an interesting evening.

Another concern though is the 18th, we are looking at some pretty dicey weather according to some models we looked at at the station. And even just looking at NOAA's hazardous 2-7 day is a bit worrying.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY MAJOR ICE OR SNOW
STORM IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXACT LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE ICE OR SNOW AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED.

We'll probably sit down and have a chat come Wednesday to get an idea as to where to go on Thursday if the weather is significant enough to chase.
 
High snow to water ratios will make for a respectable snowfall for much of IA into IL tomorrow. QPF is rather limited, but it won't take much to fluff up a band of 3-5" snows from northeast KS to northern IL by later Tuesday night. I think the most important impact this storm will have is the way it influences the track of the much more impressive storm later in the week. Snows layed down tomorrow will no doubt have a large impact on where that storm ultimately tracks.
 
Storm total of 5" in Lyons, KS. (30 miles NW of Hutchinson) Too bad I am too sick to play in it.
 
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