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FCST: 12/16-17/08 - Great Plains winter event

Tim Vasquez

Tim Vasquez

EF5
Joined
Dec 4, 2003
Messages
3,411
OK -- so this is a long ways off, but it beats what we've seen so far. The GFS's general idea is around Dec 16-17 a polar blast supposedly comes into the central and possibly Rocky Mountain region (H850/-10C isotherm well far south), with strong troughing out west. Fun ensues.

Tim

081217.jpg
 
I noticed this last night also. I don't have much experience with forecasting winter storms at all, but I can tell when one looks big :)

Interesting wording in several AFDs also about this.
 
An interesting tidbit...it mentioned during a briefing at work today that the GFS (at least for the TX Panhandle) tends to be warmer and drier when compared with the Euro that tends to be colder and wetter.

This is at the end of the model run and the GFS has been showing major pattern changes at Day 10 for, like, 2-3 months straight now...lol. It does bear watching, though.
 
I rechecked the GFS and I'm seeing signals indicating a severe and extended winter event on the Great Plains for Dec 15-25:
- arctic highs digging into the Rockies and Great Basin areas, putting baroclinicity and height falls out west instead of on the Plains
- a polar vortex over AB/SK well-situated for a week or two of cold air mass regeneration
- a strong southern stream
- long wave troughing across the southern Rockies
- strong upslope/isentropic lift along the cold front which will produce a large area of snow cover in the High Plains and regenerate cold air

I'm not sure I'm ready to lay any money down yet, but this one may be a doozy.

Tim
 
Given what is shown now, how far south could we really expect to see winter weather? I was looking at the GFS earlier and it didn't appear my area of Texas would be in for anything :( Hope I was wrong!
 
Well, I'm just going by general patterns as we're just throwing darts interpreting charts at the state level, but in this kind of general pattern being forecast, all of Texas near/north of I-20 and near/west of I-35 is favored for winter weather. It all comes down to how deep or dry the arctic air mass is and how much lift ends up developing. I think we'll have a better idea by the weekend if any of this will pan out. Again that's just an general interpretation IF the GFS doesn't flip-flop on something in the meantime.

Tim
 
Hey! Been too long since my last post.. busy as usual plus reeling from back to back cold's.. not fun.

Anyway... the 12Z run from the GFS still seems to suggest a continued threat for winter weather here in the cntrl OK. area for the time specified. What I'm a little concerned about is that this artic air mass seems to be only a kilometre or two deep at most, then the southwesterlies crank up... I'm HOPING that the depth of this airmass is underdone as this means the dreaded three letter word that starts with "I". I still have my courier job which takes me to Woods and Harper County and all points in between. And.. we carry the same motto as the mailman does... through rain, sleet, ice, snow .. or F5 tornado:p deliveries need to be made. You know, this winter loving guy might just be looking forward to chase season a little early this next year.

More to follow.

Rocky&family
 
Not surprisingly there's a significant amount of wavering back and forth on mid-month. Today's runs show no real change in significant cold air production in NW Canada early on, but introduces a much higher zonal component across the continental U.S and a split stream developing in Canada that eventually disrupts the arctic air factory (at least for awhile -- turning the southwesterly firehose on Yukon/BC/NWT usually has an effect later). Now we see a storm track and cold air confined to the Central Plains, with OK on the fringe in the mid-month period. Guess we'll check back in a couple of days and see how things look.

Tim
 
I am expecting this on the weekend. We are at 6160 here so we use 700mb basically as our SFC. From what I was seeing on the last GFS run (12z) the -10 is going to move over my area.

*sarcastic* Oh boy can't wait ;)
 
LOL here is a snippit of the discussion for CYS today...love the wording :D

SUNDAY...THE MODELS BRING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS OUR COUNTIES
EARLY IN THE DAY. AS USUAL...THE MODELS TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE AMOUNT
OF COOLING WITH THESE POLAR AIRMASSES...THUS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
UNDERCUT GFS MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES. ONLY EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY BE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTH OF THE POLAR AIRMASS DESCENDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE COLD DOME...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO GENERATE
SNOWS...THUS HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW CHANCES INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT
RANGE.

MONDAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED...THUS HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT GFS MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH MAY STILL
BE TOO WARM CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE MOTHERLODE ARCTIC
EXPRESS WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOWS LOOK
PLAUSIBLE WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE COLD
DOME.
Click to expand...

Great reading for the early morning...now I need to get a forecast out.
 
It definitely seems like we have a chance for a decently severe winter storm by Southern Plains standards depending on how things actually transpire -- isn't that always the case though?

The SWly flow pattern will be rather active next week atop a shallow arctic airmass, which means that dreaded 3 letter word that starts with an I and ends with an E...wonder if we'll have another Finals Week shutdown of Norman? I'm VERY glad I am done with all finals on this Friday so I don't have to worry about delays :D
 
It is after all finals week which means there will be some kind of meteorological mayhem. I really don't care for how the event seems to be prolonging one more day with each successive run (if I didn't have to work Tuesday I really wouldn't give a small rodent's posterior area, but that means a delightful drive up to the city). Just keep the accumulation light and the power on this time, please.
 
SGF seems to be focusing more on the 14th and 15th, with a chance of severe weather Sunday them plummeting temperatures w/ mixed precip all of Sunday night into Monday. Thankfully freezing rain is looking less likely w/ the latest model runs...
 
Looking at the latest forecast for my area (n. central IA) they are talking rain Sunday turning into snow Sunday night. The highlight of the whole forecast, a high of 11 degrees on Monday. Yea, that makes me really glad I moved back up here. (sarcasm alert!)
 
Heading to Las Vegas on Monday and it looks like I will be taking the snow with me. Should be snowing in amarillo monday morning when I leave and it will be wet in Vegas all week with snow levels all the way down into the valley (1500ft) and moderate rains all week which will cause flooding issues. As for the plains looks like a possible ice event for Oklahoma ( why always ice for you guys). Looks like all snow for the panhandle even though doesnt look like a big even for us compared to further east and north. Just cold all week.
 
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