Experimental Day 4-8 Outlooks available soon

[Rockwell Schrock]

Unless you already went and illegaly faked your IP address to gain access to the expiermental outlooks on the .noaa.gov domain, you'll soon be able to see them legally.

This product will be opened to the public on October 3, 2005 for comments through July 28, 2006.

I wonder how well they will work during the 2006 chase season.

 

[B Ozanne]

Since most products produced by the government have no copyrights or distribution rights would you mind sharing to us what they look like?

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by B Ozanne
Since most products produced by the government have no copyrights or distribution rights would you mind sharing to us what they look like?

They look like the other SWODYs, except they only highlight areas of possible/noteable significant severe weather. The marginal severe weather days aren't likely to be forecast well (at least with more than low confidence), while numerical models can usually pick up on "synoptically-evident" severe weather events. So, the areas highlighted on the Day 4-8 outlook are typically forecast to experience significant severe weather potential, or at least that's how I've understood the day 4-8 outlook. Perhaps Thompson, Edwards, or Guyer can comment further.

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by B Ozanne
Since most products produced by the government have no copyrights or distribution rights would you mind sharing to us what they look like?

From earlier this year:

<img src=http://midwestchase.com/spcforgottolock.jpg>

 

[Rockwell Schrock]

Originally posted by B Ozanne
Since most products produced by the government have no copyrights or distribution rights would you mind sharing to us what they look like?

Sorry if you midunderstood me. I don't work for the SPC or anything; I just read that notice on the SPC page and thought I'd bring up.

I'm curious as to where Nick got that screenshot though.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Originally posted by Rockwell Schrock

I'm curious as to where Nick got that screenshot though.

There was a day back in March when they forgot to "shield" it from non-NOAA.gov domains, so everyone could view it for that one day. 8)

 

[Andrew Khan]

Originally posted by Andy Wehrle+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Andy Wehrle)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Rockwell Schrock

I'm curious as to where Nick got that screenshot though.

There was a day back in March when they forgot to "shield" it from non-NOAA.gov domains, so everyone could view it for that one day. 8)[/b]

I remember that day, I looked at it myself, as a matter of fact. Good Times...

 

[nickgrillo]

Nope, I'm an SPC forecaster... LOL :lol: :lol:...

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by nickgrillo
Nope, I'm an SPC forecaster... LOL :lol: :lol:...

That's if they let you near their computers :lol: :wink:

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-nickgrillo

Nope, I'm an SPC forecaster... LOL :lol: :lol:...

That's if they let you near their computers :lol: :wink:[/b]

LOL... I'll probably accidentally fry the whole GEMPAK system, and there won't be any graphic products for the next month... :shock: :lol:

 

[Jared Guyer]

Jeff is correct... the Day 4-8 product will focus on higher end scenarios and/or potential "regional outbreaks". Given inherent uncertainties, there'll naturally be an emphasis on potential events into the Day 5 and Day 4 timeframes. As it stands now, it's what would be expected (with a reasonable confidence/signal that far out) to equate to a high end Slight Risk/Moderate Risk or higher (=> 25% prob) equivalent in the Day 1 period. In addition to the graphical product (see Nick's 3/16 example above), there is a brief narrative text discussion.

Jared Guyer