Eight States That Did Not Warm Between 1950 & 2021

[Randy Zipser]

I ran across an article today (2026-02-13) from an environmental sustainability website called Green Matters showing results of a research study about atmospheric warming for U.S. states from 1950-2021.

Eight states did not show statistically-significant warming: AL, AR, IL, KS, MS, MO, OK, and TX. However, on the included "Warming typology" map, GA is also lumped in with this group (in dark blue shading), but no mention is made as to why it was excluded in the text. In any event, interestingly all of these states comprise some part of Dixie Alley and Tornado Alley (and extending into the Midwest).

This begs the question whether there might possibly be some correlation between climatic circulation cycles (especially the La Nina pattern) and their long-term effect upon these particular states (which are also consistently known for higher numbers of annual tornadoes over the same sampling period). Again, more research might be warranted to answer these questions...even though many readers have voiced the viewpoint in other posts that statistical long-range forecast predictions have little relevance to individual case-by-case tornado chasing decisions or actions.

Scientists find most US states are warming significantly but these 8 are the exception

 

[Randy Zipser]

As a follow-up related to this same topic (notably about the current fading La Nina affecting the U.S.), the following companion articles also appeared in USA Today and on MSN, on 2026-02-12 and yesterday, by the same author, Doyle Rice:

La Niña is nearly done steering winter weather. What now?

La Niña on the way out as El Niño 2026 forecast looms

Interesting reading, not necessarily for making chase plans for 2026. However, if the trend holds throughout the entire year, we could see an above-average tornado season (for storm chasers) and a below-average hurricane season (a break for Florida and the Gulf Coast states) in 2026...the best case scenario for both!

 

[James K]

Interesting.
I looked at the USA Today article (can't see the other 2 since they are MSN which is blocked on my end, I'll have to try & find them elsewhere).

Be nice if the La Nina does dissipate before winter is over & hopefully help break down this persistent ridging & drought pattern in the western US.

 

[Randy Zipser]

I looked at the USA Today article (can't see the other 2 since they are MSN which is blocked on my end, I'll have to try & find them elsewhere).

I'm glad you found the article/topic interesting, James. Attached are the other two articles you could not access, each linked sequentially by page number (six links in all):

 

[Boris Konon]

I can't help thinking from this topic about warming, the numerous articles over the years about "X region is warming twice as fast as the reset of the globe."

First, why is it always "twice as fast?" Ever notice that? Surely due to natural global variability and various calculations, it can be anywhere between 1-2, or more than 2! Seems more like a marketing "satisfying psychological number" than anything. Second, w/ so many areas warming twice as fast, you see how that all falls apart b/c the entire baseline is raised, so it's no longer twice as fast as the rest of the globe! You no longer have a viable base comparison!

This is more about communication of various issues and how the media handles it all than anything, It is amusing, but also very important
b/c it shapes perceptions, views, and opinions. It falls along the lines, "all the data in the world is practically useless if you do not know how to use/apply it!" and the first image that comes to my mind is a picture of a person standing on a pile of ladders trying to get over a fence, and can't!