brody_clifton
EF1
I'm posting this in Weather Lab since the time frame is 10+ days out..too far in the future imho to include as a forecast, but please move this to the Map Room if it needs to be there instead. I believe any model output over 180 hours has a probability of less than a 15 percent to verify, and view this as just an anomoly that will likely change significantly over time.
Anyway, I was looking at 'Earl Barker's Model Page" website http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_us_models.htm this afternoon, at the current GFS 228 hour (currently valid 00Z 11/7) output, initialized 12Z 10/28, of the 250 mb height, temp, and wind output graphic. I noticed an eerie similarity with it to the "Storm Prediction Center's Severe Thunderstorm Event: November 09, 2002" site's http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/even...1109/index.html 12Z 250mb map of 11/9/2002. The 12Z 10/28 128 hr GFS output shows a 135+kt 250mb jet steak nosing in to the Washington state/northern California/northwest Nevada area on the west side of a developing upper trough. The 250 mb map from the SPCs Severe Thunderstorm Event archive of 12Z Nov. 9 shows a 135+ kt jet streak that morning nosing into north central California and on into central Nevada, on the west side of a developing upper trough.
However, there are several differences in the current GFS output after 00Z 11/7/2005:
1) It has the system a tad bit farther north than the 11/9/2002-11/11/2002 system and
2) Also has it crossing the conus much more quickly and deepening rapidly into a closed upper low as it does so
whereas the system from 11/9/2002-11/11/2002 remained a very broad but powerful open low whose center crossed the US at a slower pace. So, even though they start out nearly identical, the current GFS output has it ending up a much different scenario.
Anyway, I was looking at 'Earl Barker's Model Page" website http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_us_models.htm this afternoon, at the current GFS 228 hour (currently valid 00Z 11/7) output, initialized 12Z 10/28, of the 250 mb height, temp, and wind output graphic. I noticed an eerie similarity with it to the "Storm Prediction Center's Severe Thunderstorm Event: November 09, 2002" site's http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/even...1109/index.html 12Z 250mb map of 11/9/2002. The 12Z 10/28 128 hr GFS output shows a 135+kt 250mb jet steak nosing in to the Washington state/northern California/northwest Nevada area on the west side of a developing upper trough. The 250 mb map from the SPCs Severe Thunderstorm Event archive of 12Z Nov. 9 shows a 135+ kt jet streak that morning nosing into north central California and on into central Nevada, on the west side of a developing upper trough.
However, there are several differences in the current GFS output after 00Z 11/7/2005:
1) It has the system a tad bit farther north than the 11/9/2002-11/11/2002 system and
2) Also has it crossing the conus much more quickly and deepening rapidly into a closed upper low as it does so
whereas the system from 11/9/2002-11/11/2002 remained a very broad but powerful open low whose center crossed the US at a slower pace. So, even though they start out nearly identical, the current GFS output has it ending up a much different scenario.
