Does This Annoy Anyone Else?

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

I'm just wondering if I'm the only one who gets annoyed by this. Here in southern Minnesota at least all I hear about this time of year is people complaining about how the NWS is always wrong when it comes to forecasting winter storms and snowfall totals. Even this morning I heard people saying 'pfff, blizzard - I bet we'll only get an inch or 2'. Sometimes these people are right and the forecast is off but it annoys me because these people have NO clue how hard it is to forecast accurately winter storms and snowfall amounts. When these people are right and the forecast is off it annoys me even more because they will always say something along the lines of 'I told you we wouldn't get that much snow' or 'I should do the forecasting' yet when these people are wrong (like today since we already have 4+ inches of snow and have a lot to come yet) they never acknowledge the forecast was correct. I realize that often times these comments and complaints are made as attempts at humor - which is fine. However, I think there is an increasing 'resentment' towards the NWS and their forecasts - at least locally there is. Its even to the point where I think alot of people just ignore the warnings and go about their routines like usual - even in the summer time with tornado warnings people generally just ignore them.

Anyhow, enough of my rant - is this how it is all over or am I just in a lucky part of the country where people have to constantly complain?...

 

[MatthewCarman]

I had a final on Wensday and told my teacher I wanted to move it to another day. Her response was "we will only get 1-2" of snow and the NWS is off all the time". I travel to Ankeny for college and there is no way I am going in tommorow.

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

I had a final on Wensday and told my teacher I wanted to move it to another day. Her response was "we will only get 1-2" of snow and the NWS is off all the time". I travel to Ankeny for college and there is no way I am going in tommorow.

Exactly what I'm talking about - its this attitude that the NWS is always wrong so we will go about things as usual...

 

[Jason Foster]

Not uncommon. In many areas the TV mets get a majority of the attention and hence they take the blame for bad forecasts more than NWS.

Overall, the general public is horrible at understanding the nuances of forecasting and it has been one thing that all mets working and relaying information to the public have tried to perfect over the years. There are some folks that are rather good at making the uncertainty of forecasts understandable for the general public (ie. Tom Skilling).

I also think that for anyone dealing with snow...and Minn. in particular, seem to be somewhat pessimistic about certain things. Unfortunately, winter also comes with the busy holiday season and negativity abounds...particularly in urban areas.

 

[rdale]

On the other hand - we do have issues delivering forecasts. When you hear the TV met say "looks like about 3 inches coming, but if the storm tracks just a bit more southeast we get 6 inches." Viewers understand that.

When you read a forecast from the NWS, there is no such expression. You get "5 to 8 inches" to cover the worse case scenario, with nothing that says "we'll likely only get three, but we want to be safe."

 

[Penny Lehner]

People always complain if we don't get the snow predicted. Probably because they were probably hoping for a snow day from work!

Remember the Halloween blizzard? It was the one time I saw a meteorologist throw his hands up and say "I don't know how much more snow we are going to get. But it's going to be a lot." We ended up with just under 3 feet.

 

[Chris Heater]

It's amazing how many people ignore winter storm warnings (and tornado warnings for that matter). I ALWAYS hear at least 1 time a day "winter storm warning? why? It's gonna miss us anyways!". I hope our blizzard of 2007 proved to people maybe they should listen.

As for tornado warnings, its getting really ridiculous here in town. My dad actually got in a load of trouble (he works as a radio operator at MTD) for shutting down the system for a tornado warning. It was only shut down for 10 minutes, and it was because ESDA command told their spotters too many funnel cloud reports were coming in they cant keep up and their on their own and stay safe. Acting on instinct my dad told all bus drivers "if they felt they were in danger get off the bus and seek shelter until the all clear is sounded" which basically every bus got off the roads. My dad's boss's excuse for getting mad? What if someone was waiting on the bus?Really? If someone is waiting on a freaking bus WHILE the TORNADO sirens are going off...then maybe they deserve to wait out there and get killed. My dad had all the driver's on his side...so no action was taken against him. I figure it pretty ridiculous that there is such resentment and ignorance towards a tornado warning. Ok...rant done!

 

[Mike Smith]

This frustrates me so much, I've written a book about it!

Trying to get the public to understand just how good storm warnings have become is the topic of my book that is out May 1: www.mikesmithenterprises.com/book.cfm

I've also tried to educate the public about this on my blog: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2009/12/why-is-forecasting-snow-so-difficult.html

 

[Andrew Francis]

These are the same people who, during a warm, sunny spring day, say "how are we in a tornado watch? It isn't even cloudy!".

The general public is weather-tarded as I call it. They would never put it together that the days tornados do happen, are usually those warmer spring days with abundant sunshine.

I just brush off any comments such as these, they are endless and it is undoubtedly impossible to correct that many instances of this.


Don't you just love people?

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

Lol, weather-tarded

I had a co-worker the other day mention to me how we had a 'blizzard watch' on Monday and we didn't get any snow so he was pretty certain we wouldn't get any snow yesterday or today (we ended up with 8-10 inches and several hours of whiteout conditions). I explained what a blizzard watch and blizzard warning was and what they mean but it just goes to show there are MANY people who have no clue. Its no wonder why there is such a negative opinion about forecasting accuracy.

 

[rdale]

If you don't get ANY snow while in a blizzard watch, I'd consider that a "fail".

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

If you don't get ANY snow while in a blizzard watch, I'd consider that a "fail".

I think you mean in a blizzard warning (I'm sure you were joking but just making sure)? They issued the blizzard watch for here on Monday and my co-worker thought that meant we were going to get snow that day. The watch was actually issued for from noon Tuesday until midnight on Wednesday which then was changed to a warning Tuesday morning before the storm hit.

 

[rdale]

I think you mean in a blizzard warning (I'm sure you were joking but just making sure)?

No, I meant what I said. If someone says a Blizzard Watch is in effect, and you don't get a lick of snow out of the event, then it was a major bust.

They issued the blizzard watch for here on Monday and my co-worker thought that meant we were going to get snow that day.

Gotcha, that doesn't match your original story. You didn't have a blizzard watch in effect on Monday. He apparently didn't listen to the time that the watch was in effect for.

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

Yep, sorry - I noticed I didn't clarify things very well. You are right, if a blizzard watch is issued and absolutely no snow falls then that is a fail for sure (though I would hope that won't ever happen).

 

[Adam Lucio]

I thought blizzard watches/warnings were issued based on winds and not snow?

Last winter season [08-09] we had an event that barely brought any snow but we were under a BW for the high winds. I remember having to repeatedly explain to people that despite what they hear...a blizzard isnt defined by the amount of snow that falls.