Some of you already use my Convective Weather Maps with severe weather parameters based on the GFS model. You may have noticed they were not updated regularly during the last few months, due to data retrieval problems with NCEPs NOMADS data servers.
The maps for Europe have seen a very reliable update cycle over the past year based on the global grib2 data from NWS downloaded to the ESTOFEX server, thanks to efforts of Pieter Groenemeijer.
The North American maps will now run on the same data and update reliably at 7,13,19,1 UTC which is 2,8,14,20 CDT for the 0,6,12,18Z runs, respectively.
I encourage you to use the maps in your forecasting. They are part of my moral support to those out on the Plains
Convective Weather Maps:
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/usa.html
A manual is available: http://lightningwizard.estofex.org/ConvectiveWeatherMaps.pdf
You may find of particular value the 'Uncapped-Parcel Layer Depth' parameter at the bottom of the page, shaded in the maps. It integrates model levels below 600 hPa (and above ground) having CAPE >50 J/kg and at the same time CIN <50 J/kg. The deeper this layer, the more likely is convective initiation.
Of course, it is model output, as always beware of changes and real observations.
Oscar
The maps for Europe have seen a very reliable update cycle over the past year based on the global grib2 data from NWS downloaded to the ESTOFEX server, thanks to efforts of Pieter Groenemeijer.
The North American maps will now run on the same data and update reliably at 7,13,19,1 UTC which is 2,8,14,20 CDT for the 0,6,12,18Z runs, respectively.
I encourage you to use the maps in your forecasting. They are part of my moral support to those out on the Plains
Convective Weather Maps:
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/usa.html
A manual is available: http://lightningwizard.estofex.org/ConvectiveWeatherMaps.pdf
You may find of particular value the 'Uncapped-Parcel Layer Depth' parameter at the bottom of the page, shaded in the maps. It integrates model levels below 600 hPa (and above ground) having CAPE >50 J/kg and at the same time CIN <50 J/kg. The deeper this layer, the more likely is convective initiation.
Of course, it is model output, as always beware of changes and real observations.
Oscar
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