Convective potential in Baghdad on Jan 5,6

[David Draun]

The only forecast I can get for this area is Accuweather.com, they seem to be hinting at a partly sunny day with afternoon rain for Friday and Saturday. Now I have heard from ST members that Accuweather is not very ACCUrate, lol, but thier forecasts for here have been pretty good. Thunderstorm probabilities are at 25% for Friday, currently. A warm 22C is forecast that day as well. 8) The past few times, an 11% and even lower has verified with a rumble of thunder. The 23rd of December had a 6%. Maybe this weekend will be a little more interesting. It would be cool to get some pics of TCu and Cb with Baghdad buildings in the background. Where are our middle east-residing ST members? I know there is at least one. David Shaloami, where are ya? What do you think of this forecast?

A fairly sharp cold snap is still forecast for next week with possible precip occuring with a 0C overnight low. Maybe a flake or two? Apparently, it's been 55 years.

 

[Dan Christianson]

:?: David props to you for doing what you're doing, have you had any dustdevils occurr since youve been down there? thats prb close as youll get for action, but ill do a rain dance and maybe ill send some storms your way lol ;-)

take it easy and best wishes

 

[David Brookshier]

Lets hope that forecast holds up and if you get a good CG storm down thier at night set up a tripod and catch some lightning. If you caught some Cgs on film from Iraq those would be some great storm pics I mean how many of us chasers here in the states with all of our websites and lightning pictures can boast that we have a CG shot from Iraq. If you got one you will indeed have a rare treat the rest of us can't chase. If you have time out there go for it!!!

 

[Susan Strom]

Stay safe David and I hope you get your thunderstorm...and that news improves around Baghdad today. Tough day and I hope you all are ok.

 

[David Draun]

First of all, thanks to all of you. Second of all, my bad, the thread is dated wrong, it should be Jan 6-7. Things still look good for tomorrow as far as convection goes. The cold front looks quite strong and will just be a precursor to even colder air next week. Unfortunately, I don't have a tripod and the max shutter time on my camera is only 4 seconds, so any lightning will be from vidcaps. Today, there must have been some storms to the north and west since anvil blowoff covered much of the sky. I'm still looking at a possible flake next thursday with a high of 8C and a low of -3C. :shock: I have not felt cold air like that since December 04!

I'm charging my digicam batteries tonight!!! 8)

 

[David Draun]

Well, it is now almost 10pm now, it's been humid all day with temps in the mid 60's. A rather heavy shower came through at about 7:30, which just aggravated the flies and mosquitos. :roll: No lightning yet. There may be some more rain tonight and tomorrow. It is going to be only in the low 50's tomorrow with high winds. There is almost a day-to day chance of rain during what is going to be a cold blustery week with the potential for freezing temps at night, and possible freezing rain by next Sunday. Doesn't look good for thunder though, even though accuweather has a 14% thunder potential tomorrow. :cry:

 

[Joel Wright]

Sorry the storms didn't materialize for you. Hopefully you'll see a good one over there before you leave.

If it makes you feel any better, you aren't missing out on anything here in northern IL. Unless you love solid stratus overcast/drizzle everyday with no storm systems to speak of.

Stay safe over there!

 

[David Draun]

This coming week, it will be warmer in Chicago than Baghdad on a few days. We now have an ice storm forecasted for Wednesday, yes, that's right, I said ice storm. It will rain much of the day and night with a low of
-4C windchill -11C! :shock: I'd like to see Iraqi's try to drive on icy roads. There ain't no salt trucks here, and that translates to slip, slide, CRASH! There is a potential for evenimg storms tonight, we'll see what happens.

Also, there is a wintry mix forecasted for next Sunday, it's a little far out, but we will see.

Meanwhile, where has winter gone in the US? I see 40's and 50's in IL. I guess all the cold is coming here this year. :shock: