Convective events in Estonia possible today?

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

Latest sounding for Tallinn is indicating some CAPE. Also, Total Totals index is once again in 50's. CINH, CAPE Virt, CINH virt and Lapse rates are also something what draw attention.

Cumulus clouds have already started towering in my neck of the woods. For armchair chasers, I have a webcam up on my weather site so you can see what I am seeing as long as I can stay online. At the moment, it looks to be an interesting day. CU's are already high towers and it is just 10 AM.

 

[Marko Korosec]

I don't see anything interesting there, ESTOFEX obviously doesn't have anything there since its boring sounding, not to mention you're close to zero degrees, what would you expect? Some cumulus will pop up and leave some drops. Wait for some real action when things warm up in few weeks.

I also don't see a point posting a new topic for every light April's shower of sleet that comes around. But who am I to play a moderators role here. I just suggest you to keep one thread for these things, not so many...I hardly find any topic from US guys in this flood of yours

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

I probably started this thread indeed with extreme case of SDS controlling me. Today, there has been once again one occurrence of snow pellets with diameter from 2 to 4 millimeters. Also, there are numerous cumulus congestus and cumulonimbus clouds in the sky today.

However, on Thursday, there was lightning detected in the NE Estonia while ESTOFEX missed it. Estofex map for Thursday. I had watched sounding for that afternoon(that day, sounding was issued at 12Z) and detection of lightning was the least I expected.

Another thing is that this situation I am having, does seem to affect only Southern parts of this country. Station where that sounding was taken is the nearest to me, but is also nearly 200 kilometers away from my home and it is in Northern Estonia. Atmosphere could be totally different in my neck of the woods, but there is no data from this area to say it is so. This NOAA satellite image shows as well, that biggest cloudiness is in Southern parts of Estonia. I have heard that situation in Pärnu is also calmer than here.

I wish I was able to rename the thread to April's weather in Estonia. However, more better thing is not to post at all.

Edit: I would like to share a picture I snapped from my weather cam at about quarter to 11 AM today:

Image is taken 1 minute earlier than shown by the timestamp of the image.

Update at 16:35 Estonian Time: Estonian Road Administration has reported hail in Tartu and Valga county. They have also reported some snow. At the moment, in Laguja, air temperature is 39 degrees Fahrenheit and it is very windy. Gusts are over 30 miles per hour. I have had some snow pellets again. Meanwhile, activity around here has been weakening. According to Latvian weather radar, biggest activity is now in Southern Latvia and Northern Lithuania. I apologize for disturbing.

 

[Tomas Pucik]

Well, really nothing that special going on in Europe concerning thunderstorms. I remember that when Kyrill swept across Europe, we had severe thunderstorm with hail and strong wind gusts. I was awed, because so far, I do not recall seeing thunderstorm in January and I would not even dream about storm that strong! This was the last time I actually saw lightning this year :-( .
I am looking at the lightning data for Europe and I see not a single strike for Baltic region. Also I disagree with the statement, that conditions are conductive to thunderstorm today there. As I see a very cold advection is occuring behind cold front...which yields several jouls of CAPE mostly for marine areas of Baltic sea. I would expect low topped showers with some wind gusts, but not really a thunderstorm.

 

[Tarmo Tanilsoo]

I have reviewed the first post and I found that I didn't not mention word "thunderstorm" (Or I missed it). I should have worded my initial post better. I could have as well meaned hail too. Apologizes for confusion. As mentioned above, Estonian Road Administration (what informs about national road conditions) had said that they had observed hail(however, I doubt it. I live in Tartu county and only had snow pellets). Also, there was one report about high winds when cloud went overhead in the city of Tartu.

In Estonia, main weather concern is currently the wind. At the afternoon, Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute issued a severe warning for whole Estonia about high winds.

Update: Surprisingly, Tallinn has released 12Z sounding.