Change in hurricane warning criteria to include post-tropical storms

[John Farley]

Just saw this:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...definition_n_2245819.html?utm_hp_ref=new-york

I'm not sure that the way that the Hurricane Center covered Sandy made a big difference in how people responded to the threat, but nonetheless I think this policy change makes sense.

 

[rdale]

Not quite right... Yet This is just a proposal.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I have mixed feelings about this. Sure it's good that the NHC recognizes they didn't handle the advisories for Sandy very well, but I have to wonder how this really went through the minds of those in Sandy's path as it approached. If I lived in NJ, PA, NY, or somewhere in that area, I would have to be living under a rock to not know that a late-season tropical cyclone was headed my way days in advance. I would also know by at least a day or two ahead of time that the storm was going to be transitioning into something not tropical. However, my local meteorologists SHOULD have been telling me (and I think they really were) that even though Sandy would not be officially a hurricane by and after the time it came ashore, it would still be a dangerous storm as it would remain capable of producing very strong winds upwards of 80 mph (i.e., hurricane force) or so with extremely heavy rain and coastal flooding in accordance with the surge that the storm would produce. After all that, why then would I freak out and get mad at the NHC for no longer issuing hurricane warnings for my area? I can't imagine a halfway intelligent person would see the discontinuation of warnings and think, "hey, the storm must not be a threat anymore. Never mind these high wind warnings, flood watches, coastal flood advisories, and whatnot. I'll just go back to business as usual." I understand not everyone is even halfway intelligent, but if people really think that hurricanes can simply evaporate 12 hours before striking land, then I don't think it's the warning system that needs to be fixed. If, on the other hand, my earlier premise that local meteorologists were continuing to brief their customers by informing them that the storm would continue to be dangerous even after being non-tropical is false, then again I don't think it's the warning system that needs to be fixed. I think a little education would go a long way to avoiding problems like this in the future rather than adjusting an entire system of action for an organization such as the NHC.

 

[Mike Smith]

From here, it looked like a well-forecast storm. Unfortunately, in the affected area, they were very much getting mixed messages.

See: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/12/why-threat-communication-is-vital-part.html

And, read, verbatim, Mayor Bloomberg's highly misleading words here: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-consequences-of-nwss-decision-not.html

95+% of the population are not weather geeks like us. They don't want to leave their homes. So, if they are given "it won't be as bad as Irene" (which wasn't that bad) by people in high authority, they'll grasp onto that reassurance.

 

[Jeff Duda]

From here, it looked like a well-forecast storm. Unfortunately, in the affected area, they were very much getting mixed messages.

See: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/12/why-threat-communication-is-vital-part.html

And, read, verbatim, Mayor Bloomberg's highly misleading words here: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-consequences-of-nwss-decision-not.html

95+% of the population are not weather geeks like us. They don't want to leave their homes. So, if they are given "it won't be as bad as Irene" (which wasn't that bad) by people in high authority, they'll grasp onto that reassurance.

I agree that many NOAA/NWS policies are in dire need of modernization (i.e., updated to what 21st century technology can support). As we've seen, it seems to take a major event where many people die before governmental agencies will get off their asses and respond/react to the changing world around them. Even when they finally do act, though, usually all they do is make the minimum possible amount of change so that they barely reach the standards of that day (which has already passed). They don't account for any change that may occur in the near future.