Patrick Marsh
EF5
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2006
- Messages
- 783
Then what do you say with a 30-35 foot surge or greater?If a 20 to 25 foot storm surge into Galveston isn't the time to pull out the OMFG language, when is?
After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.
I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.
For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.
From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.
Sincerely, Jeff D.
Then what do you say with a 30-35 foot surge or greater?If a 20 to 25 foot storm surge into Galveston isn't the time to pull out the OMFG language, when is?
Then what do you say with a 30-35 foot surge or greater?
But are you guaranteeing it will be 20-25ft? What if it's 15-20ft? I'd call that a possibility, but using "you're going to die" language means no matter what - if Ike ends up veering at the last minute and the surge is only 10 feet, you're going to die?
Please point to a product in which the NHC says "get out or you're going to die." I've only seen these products from local WFOs.That decision is made by professional people with more information than you or me who have a very strong grasp of probabilities and risk assessment. If the NHC says "get out or you're going to die", they aren't just yanking on people's chains.
Please point to a product that you have listed above that has "[take xxx action] or you're going to die". One could argue that Tornado Emergencies fall along these lines and I think my opinion on these are well known on this board.At what point does your logic stop? Should we not be issuing tornado warnings for doppler indicated rotation, because only a small percentage of doppler indicated tornadoes actually produce? Should we not issue flash flood warnings until someone actually goes out and measures all the local rivers and streams?
Unless you include the actual probabilities, I don't think the death language should ever be used. We aren't as good as we want people to believe. You lose all credibility the first time your death situation doesn't pan out.You work with the data you have and an understanding of statistical probabilites. The argument that people seem to be making here is that the statistical probabilites of death in storm surge are just not high enough to include language of death. To you I would ask: under what statistical analysis/model do you base your assertion that the warning issued by the NHC citing "possible certain death" is overblown?
No, I don't have access to either of these, but I agree with what rdale is saying. You should NEVER use scare tactics because if it isn't as bad as you say it is you are going to lose their trust. Just look at how many NOLA residents say they won't evacuate next time...Do YOU have access to realtime SLOSH models and volumes of pre-run FEMA surge simulation studies
Good summary Mike...
NWS said that if you stayed, it was almost certain you would die. 140,000 people stayed behind.
What will those 140,000 people think next time? Or what about the million+ people that left, and see those who left behind still living when they come back?
Good summary Mike...
NWS said that if you stayed, it was almost certain you would die. 140,000 people stayed behind.
What will those 140,000 people think next time? Or what about the million+ people that left, and see those who left behind still living when they come back?