Jessie Schafer
Enthusiast
So... super noob/amature here. I'm currently stationed at an Army base in south central MO. Per the SPC there is currently a 15% probability highlighted here
I know I can go to the Target area discussion, as i often do to as i am a huge fan of the senior members here, but it doesn't seem like anyone is talking much about the 4/27 event.
I have been looking at the SREF model runs and was hoping someone could help me interpret what I am looking at and why this doesn't seem to be a big event or what makes it a possible bust.
I have no formal training aside from what I've taught myself, and this is the first time I've sat down and really tried interpreting Data from forecast tools, so please go easy on me
what I *think* I am seeing is roughly 1500-2000 j/kg SFC CAPE, and mid 60s Dew Points, so it seems like where I am located lies in the northern periphery of the better moisture. Not substantial, but good enough?
Now lift I really have a hard time wrapping my head around sometimes. What makes adequate lift and at what MB should I be looking?
AND
My area (South Central MO) seem to be lacking in good lift and shear from what I can see.
[Broken External Image]:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_0-6KMSHR_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f072.gif
If I am looking at this all wrong please feel free to give me constructive criticism. I am always willing to learn, especially if you take time out of your day to respond.
Thank you in advance for helping an amateur out.
SSG Schafer
U.S. Army

I know I can go to the Target area discussion, as i often do to as i am a huge fan of the senior members here, but it doesn't seem like anyone is talking much about the 4/27 event.
I have been looking at the SREF model runs and was hoping someone could help me interpret what I am looking at and why this doesn't seem to be a big event or what makes it a possible bust.
I have no formal training aside from what I've taught myself, and this is the first time I've sat down and really tried interpreting Data from forecast tools, so please go easy on me

what I *think* I am seeing is roughly 1500-2000 j/kg SFC CAPE, and mid 60s Dew Points, so it seems like where I am located lies in the northern periphery of the better moisture. Not substantial, but good enough?
Now lift I really have a hard time wrapping my head around sometimes. What makes adequate lift and at what MB should I be looking?

AND

My area (South Central MO) seem to be lacking in good lift and shear from what I can see.
[Broken External Image]:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_0-6KMSHR_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f072.gif
If I am looking at this all wrong please feel free to give me constructive criticism. I am always willing to learn, especially if you take time out of your day to respond.
Thank you in advance for helping an amateur out.
SSG Schafer
U.S. Army