Better forecasting

[ChristofferB]

Once I have finished the WeatherPrediction.com course(s) I will do an "Archive forecast" here for a significant threat day in the past in order to make it a source of discussion. I think that could be really interesting! Trying to understand what made a specific High Risk-day just that favorable for severe weather.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Another source you may want to consider, Christoffer, is the Area Forecast Discussion (AFD.) These explain the reasoning for a local forecast office's official forecast. Each local office (WFO) covers about one-third or one-fourth of a state area. You can start here: http://www.weather.gov/ and then zoom in on the area you're interested in. Although they will often cite what the SPC is discussing (especially on a severe weather day), it really represents an independent forecast. Because each WFO has good knowledge of the climatology in their area, the AFD will give you a different perspective and perhaps consider some factors that aren't necessarily covered by the SPC's outlooks. As you read several of these, you'll quickly learn that each forecaster has his own unique style and methods.