• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

Bad News for South Florida?

Joined
Jul 18, 2004
Messages
756
Location
Westport, CT
One look at the current IR satellite image tells us that we are no longer dealing with the 17kt TD we had earlier today. Rita is looking quite healthy as of 2345z and the LLC appears to have reformed to the north underneath constant bursts of deep convection. The 00z update from the TPC has the latitude at 22.7N and has (very importantly) changed the direction of motion from W to NW; I would say if this system can make it north of 23.5N then we'll be looking at a mainland FL impact. With lessening shear forecast over the next couple days, hot SSTs, and a major metro area in its possible path, I fear this could deal S FL a pretty significant blow. From what I hear, the local media is getting everyone down there's attention, so thats at least some good news, but is anyone else worried about this cyclone's pre-Gulf legacy?
 
Those convective flares this afternoon were impressive, I was thinking the same thing you were Sam.

What's more interesting is the latest BAMM run. It may not be the best hurricane model, but its a recent run, and the track shouldn't be ingnored.
 
Originally posted by Sam Sagnella
The 06z GFDL brings Rita to 921mb ( :shock: ) and ~140kts (Cat5) while it is still EAST of the Keys. FWIW.

What are everybody's sources for these intensity forecasts? I'm still working on my punch card forecast model over here :).

Edit: Thanks for those sites Jeff, very helpful.
 
Originally posted by B Ozanne+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(B Ozanne)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-Sam Sagnella
The 06z GFDL brings Rita to 921mb ( :shock: ) and ~140kts (Cat5) while it is still EAST of the Keys. FWIW.

What are everybody's sources for these intensity forecasts? I'm still working on my punch card forecast model over here :).[/b]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/gui...dance/index.htm (click the intensity link)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
 
Originally posted by Andrew Khan
Am I starting to see an eye in Rita? I think I am beginning to see the rain tapering off in the center..

By the looks of this image, I would say there is a definite eye begining to form:

eye.GIF


Sorry, I couldn't resist! :lol:


Seriously though... The models do deepen this storm quite a bit, and I am guessing that it will be our next major hurricane...
 
Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-Andrew Khan
Am I starting to see an eye in Rita? I think I am beginning to see the rain tapering off in the center..

By the looks of this image, I would say there is a definite eye begining to form:

eye.GIF


Sorry, I couldn't resist! :lol:


Seriously though... The models do deepen this storm quite a bit, and I am guessing that it will be our next major hurricane...[/b]

LOL, yep that has GOT to be an eye! If it intensifies then we could have a problem though, like rdewey said.
 
Ahhhhhhh! I knew the Illuminati were behind these hurricanes! :shock:

Seriously, don't see an eye quite yet in the satellite pics -- infrared or WV. The sun set on the vis a little while ago. :wink:
 
The eye does not always appear at it’s beginning phase, on the satellite view. Infrared scans can confirm it, even before it makes a physical appearance.
 
There is a clear eye-looking opening in the short wave IR. I'm not that familiar with looking at the short wave scans. Maybe somebody else can confirm that.

Useful link to the Cuban Weather Service Radar: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=...LAS&TB1=RADARES

Edit: After watching the short wave IR loop its not an eye, just a dry spot. Not saying there isn't an eye there, at 2025est there was none visible in the shortwave IR though.
 
Originally posted by rdewey+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(rdewey)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-Andrew Khan
Am I starting to see an eye in Rita? I think I am beginning to see the rain tapering off in the center..

By the looks of this image, I would say there is a definite eye begining to form:

eye.GIF


Sorry, I couldn't resist! :lol:


Seriously though... The models do deepen this storm quite a bit, and I am guessing that it will be our next major hurricane...[/b]


Yeah, by the looks of things, this storm could become a monster once it gets out in the Gulf. The NHC 5 day cone has Southern Louisiana shaded, which is a very bad thing for recovery efforts. However it doesnt appear that it will make a direct strike there. It looks like SE Texas will get the brunt of it.
 
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