Attributing extreme events to climate change - the debate

[Mike Benefield]

The current climate change theory could be proven if we had the same types of data beginning about 100 million years ago as we do now. Solid proof, not speculation, would put an end to the debate.

 

[rdale]

No Mike - that is not needed. (And even if it existed, it wouldn't end the debate.) Did you go back to Leigh's post and get a handle on the fundamentals? No dessert for you until you eat those lima beans Asking us to wait 100 million years to take action on climate change is a non-starter.

Look at ozone... In the 70s it was theorized that ozone was going to be depleted due to CFCs. In the 80s the ozone hole was discovered (in some cases by the same science groups as those who discovered climate change.) In 1987 using the best science, nations banned those CFCs. Nobody said "well we don't have measurements from 1920" or "let's wait until all the ozone is gone so we know for sure." They used the facts known to them at the time and fixed it. Guess what? The ozone hole is getting much much better.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/05/100505-science-environment-ozone-hole-25-years/

 

[Michael Snyder]

The current climate change theory could be proven if we had the same types of data beginning about 100 million years ago as we do now. Solid proof, not speculation, would put an end to the debate.

Just a clarification here, you don't PROVE a theory in science. A scientific theory is a culmination of facts that support the original claim. A scientific theory is an explanation of phenomena. Some theories are stronger than others..
So- The Theory of climate change will never be PROVEN, just like the Theory of Gravity will never be PROVEN. There is no upgrade to be had here. A scientific theory can be strengthened and it can be disproven however.

As for Climate change, when you add CO2 to the atmosphere, it will warm the atmosphere, its basic physics and very well understood.

Also be careful not to confuse Laws and Scientific Theories, they are NOT the same thing.

 

[Michael Snyder]

For all those who are wondering a little bit about attribution of climate change to some extreme events, or for those who think they are convinced the truth is one way or another, I invite you to read this short news article: http://www.denverpost.com/breakingn...st-ties-severity-colorados-2013-flood-climate.

Towards the end there is a short debate between two respected, experienced, and knowledgeable researchers about how much attribution towards an extreme event can be applied to anthropogenic climate change. This is the actual scientific debate that EVERYONE should focus on. I want people to get a look at it, because it differs strongly from the highly politicized debates most of you are probably familiar with. Don't listen to politicians on matters of science; rather, listen to those who are actually conducting the research.

As I once said- Show me someone who doesn't understand AGW, and Ill show you someone who isn't a climatologist.