ATLANTIC: MAJOR HURRICANE DANIELLE

[Zack Cooper]

Tropical depression 6 has formed in the Eastern Atlantic as of the 4 pm advisory. Looks like a general west northwest track over the next 48 hours. This thing could easily become a major hurricane as shown by most models

-Zack

 

[Zack Cooper]

Tropical Depression 6 still looking decent.... but hasnt organized much since classification

 

[Charles Kuster]

TD6 continues to move to the WNW and slowly organize. At the present time, some weak northeasterly shear is hampering the system somewhat, but this shear should decrease in the next 24 hours allowing TD6 to strengthen into Tropical Storm Danielle and eventually Hurricane Danielle.

As of now, the most crucial aspect to the forecast is the interaction between the trough currently located over the eastern U.S. (and eventually the trough over the western U.S.) and the strength of the Bermuda High. This eastern trough should linger for several days over the east coast, before a much more progressive wave moves through effectively lifting the entire low pressure system quickly to the northeast. This appears to create a weakness in the ridge which would lead to a northwesterly/northerly motion by the tropical cyclone late in the forecast period (Friday-Sunday) Obviously this solution is far in the future and therefore impossible to predict what will happen, but this is the solution presented in the GFS and ECMWF right now.

The only thing one could confidently say right now, is that TD6 will move to the west northwest under the influence of the Atlantic ridge over the next several days (through Thursday) and should slowly strengthen as well. This storm definitely bears watching over the next week or so!

Current (8/22/10 12Z) 500mb chart.

 

[Zack Cooper]

06L actually appears to be losing organization. The llc is rapidly moving NNE... away from convection... CIMSS shows it is rapidly becoming less organized as well... will have to see what happens...

 

[Zack Cooper]

Tropical Storm Danielle is born

 

[Zack Cooper]

Danielle now a 50 mph tropical storm

 

[Greg Blumberg]

I wanted to add something about the comment left by Charles regarding the GFS and ECMWF solution about the upper level pattern breaking down.

I wouldn't completely trust those solutions as the current upper level ridge seems to be a lot stronger than forecasted by the GFS model. I can't verify the ECMWF's performance, but from my analysis of today, the GFS had trouble forecasting the intensity of the ridge. From my experience, models have issues handling blocking patterns such as this one.

 

[MatthewCarman]

NHC has Danielle as a fish that won't affect the US. Anyone think they could be wrong?

There is a small chance of new development with the system just coming off of Africa.

 

[jdrenken]

Make that Hurricane Danielle.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

NHC has Danielle as a fish that won't affect the US. Anyone think they could be wrong?

There is a small chance of new development with the system just coming off of Africa.

Both Danielle AND 96L will BOTH recurve.

Sorry guys (for no intercept), sorry Mr Tuna (for the turbulence).

Whenever you see a trough there across the Atlantic, and ALL of the models are clustered on it, there's a 99.99% chance it will go out to sea.

This year might just be a "fish" year indeed. Lots of storms, little land effect, especially with the Cape Verde (teasers) I call them.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

I agree. It will be interesting to see what the next disturbances do. Right now there are 4 stacked across Africa. Possible five with the fifth one being under that massive white area on the messed up sat image. Maybe the Azores high can rebuild and take one towards the leeward islands or east coast? Either way I'm not optimistic on a land fall till mid September when storms form a little father away from the Cape Verde Islands.

 

[MClarkson]

Its interesting that the GFS had repeatadly developed a strong recurving Cape Verde system well over a week ago in its ridiculous long range time frame. The GFS has done that before... and is right more often than not.

The latest motion looks pretty much due west with high pressure building from the north... looking very healthy with good outflow and little shear(rapid intensification anyone?)... but that high will erode eventually. I would be surprised if it even got to Bermuda... and shocked if it didn't recurve at all.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Thanks for answering my question Rich. I don't think this storm will affect any part of the US. Interesting though.

 

[MClarkson]

I guess "right" should be qualified a bit. I dont mean exactly right. That would be asking a real lot at that range...

But the long range trends of not only genesis but a rather healthy system and a general track... are pretty good.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

For those into the marine side of things heres a look at the 48hr forecast swell generation from Daniell from NAH (GFDL)


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