Atlantic invest 92l

[Zack Cooper]

Well, Invest 92L was born today, and some models are really starting to pick up on it. I find it hard to believe that this system will develop over the next few days, not only because it is rare for systems to develop in the central and eastern atlantic this early in the season, but because it will run into unfavorable conditions in a few days. However, I guess it could develop in the near term into a tropical depression or storm. What ya think?

 

[Zack Cooper]

you don't see anything? the Invest is on the right hand of the image. looks decent.

 

[Zack Cooper]

lol I probably did jinx it. And whenever the Navy see's something they think may develop, they designate an area an invest. All it means is they run all the models on it like the ships intensity model, gfdl, hwrf, etc.

 

[Zack Cooper]

Well, NHC has given this system a HIGH chance for development, and I think if this system can get convection and keep it, we might have a td on our hands

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

This is indeed very strange for a system so early in the Atlantic season (of Cape Verde origin). Makes one wonder what this area will be like in Aug / Sept

This system (whether or not it forms a depression) will most likely be torn up by the shear long before it makes its way anywhere, due to the trough to its NW.

Still, the higher-than-normal SST's in the eastern Atlantic (and it's affects) are obvious.

Typically, the southern Gulf of Mexico / western Bahamas is the normal formation areas for storms in early June.

 

[Zack Cooper]

Well, the little critter is a fighter, it is once again trying to organize, and while it only has maybe 12 to 24 hours before hitting 25 to 30 kt of shear... we could have a possible depression at dmax

 

[Zack Cooper]

Well yeah, but Its rare to have storms worth chasin in June.

 

[Joshua Horenstein]

Does anyone else think this should have already been classified as a depression? I think nhc is being lazy because they don't want to write full storm products on a system with so little long term potential.. But look at it today despite all that westerly shear.....

 

[Joshua Horenstein]

Lol, my post was a bit tongue in cheek, didn't mean for the offense obviously taken.
However, I think my pont is still valid. Writing a dscussion on this feature with no chance for survival would be a bit like doing homework that didn't count. I just wonder if that plays a roll at all. It's not as if the discussion says "ship reports give no indication of a closed low" or anything.

 

[Joshua Horenstein]

As far as them personally telling you (or other meticulous advisory watchers) that there has not been a ship report to validate their decision; well, I don't think they feel that is necessary.

Well why not, dammit...it's late June, we have nothing else to salivate over. Anyway, the point is moot now as the shear seems to have destroyed the wave pretty effectively.