At least they're telling it like it is...

Andy Wehrle

Andy Wehrle

EF5
Joined
Oct 10, 2004
Messages
1,423
Location
Madison, WI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
230 PM CST WED MAR 9 2005

IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES...YOU'RE LOOKING IN THE WRONG PLACE. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EACH PERIOD...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MODERATION LIKELY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

:evil:

I think I'll get a custom T-shirt..."I hate northwest flow". Or maybe it should be a thermal-insulated jacket instead... :twisted:
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
230 PM CST WED MAR 9 2005

IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES...YOU'RE LOOKING IN THE WRONG PLACE. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EACH PERIOD...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MODERATION LIKELY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

:evil:

I think I'll get a custom T-shirt..."I hate northwest flow". Or maybe it should be a thermal-insulated jacket instead... :twisted:
Click to expand...

You think that's bad? Check out what the GFS' thoughts are:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_ten_384m.gif

Frickin' arctic outbreak one week before April...

Once the calendar hits April, tables better turn... I can stomach winter through March, but once April hits, it's all about the storms...
 
I think I'll get a custom T-shirt..."I hate northwest flow". Or maybe it should be a thermal-insulated jacket instead... :twisted:
Click to expand...

Ha. Try tolerating northwest flow as far south as down here at this time of the year. Up north you're supposed to still be socked in with winter......that's why all the tornadoes happen down here, or used to. :lol:

Seriously.....doesn't bode well for any sort of moisture return looking out as far as the end of the month.....you'll get southwesterlies at 500mb and screwy surface winds out of the northeast.......bleh.

Folks will have to get used to the idea that maybe the 2005 chase season will be a little slower in starting, and maybe it won't be as disgustingly jam-packed with tubes as the previous two.

KR
 
You think that's bad? Check out what the GFS' thoughts are:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/an...fs_ten_384m.gif

Frickin' arctic outbreak one week before April...

Once the calendar hits April, tables better turn... I can stomach winter through March, but once April hits, it's all about the storms...
Click to expand...

The bad news with that forecast is what is going on in the Gulf. With that very strong northerly flow throughout the entire Gulf, it's bad news for early April. Given the flow, it looks as though that front will make it clear to the Caribbean, wiping out any decent low-level moisture in the process. This isn't uncommon for this early in the season, but it does remind me of 2002, when we had cold front after cold front march through the Gulf, leaving us with measely Tds... At least it's only still March...
 
Folks will have to get used to the idea that maybe the 2005 chase season will be a little slower in starting, and maybe it won't be as disgustingly jam-packed with tubes as the previous two.
Click to expand...

I've been hearing a couple people saying this... but I really can't see this year being a horrible one. We've already gotten a few good days in the southern plains, with several moderate risk days since the beggining of the year. Now last year looked like a VERY promising junk year (2000 Part II)...but it all shaped up by late May with a week filled with tornadoes.

I strongly believe that 2005 will be a nice, average year.

..Nick..
 
I strongly believe that 2005 will be a nice, average year.
Click to expand...

Well, in Karen's defense, I believe she's suggesting pretty much the same thing: 2005 will be average. The past two years were far from average.

However, it's worth noting that, as active as the past two years have been, March and April were still fairly average months in both cases. Generally, I think it's best not to pass judgment on a season until May.
 
I think the season will be like just about any other recent year. Last year had record tornadoes but a huge number of these were from tropical systems. It seems that there is always a great chase season but it isn't always gonna be in your favorite part of the Alley. One year the hot spot is up north, the next it's down south, but usually something for everyone. There are more and more chasers out there capturing awesome footage which leaves everyone thinking, "how can we top this next year", and then next year comes around and we all say the same thing.
 
NW flow

NW flow in Wisconsin gave y'all the Oakfield F-5...you might love it later on this spring.
 
It's also helpful to remember that last year's numbers didn't catch up to average until the last week in May, I believe ... and then they shot way past the average later in the summer only because of the huge numbers of hurricane-spawned tornadoes and tropical systems as was mentioned. When it comes down to it, we just won't know till it's over, but I'll be mighty surprised if this year can come close to living up to the last two around these parts anyway.
 
Every year's different. Eventually the pattern will shift in our favor. You never know, it may stay very active all through June like back in the mid 90's.
 
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