Jesse Risley
Staff member
Ref: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...weather-forecast-system-in-favor-of-uk-model/
The U.S. Air Force Weather Agency, which provides forecasts for Air Force and Army missions around the world, plans to replace its U.S.-based forecasting system with a model from the United Kingdom.
The U.K. model selected by the Air Force, known as the Unified Model of the United Kingdom Met Office, is widely respected. The Air Force says it will improve its forecast capabilities and lower its costs. Within a single framework, this model is able to provide both short- and longer-range forecasts over large and small areas — which is not a seamless operation within the current U.S. system.
But the decision — which was made without coordination with the National Weather Service or U.S. Navy, who partner with the Air Force to improve predictions — has drawn criticism from parts of the U.S. weather research and forecasting community. Several leading figures say they are perplexed that the Air Force has selected a foreign model when the United States is investing substantial resources to develop its own world-class models.
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model developed by the University Center for Atmospheric Research, a federally funded laboratory in Boulder, Colo.
“We’ve been notified by the Air Force that we’re going to sustain cuts and that they are now going to go with a foreign model,” said Scott Rayder, senior adviser to the president at the University Center for Atmospheric Research. “To say we’re disappointed is an understatement. I am confused as to why they’re subsidizing the competition and not supporting the U.S. weather modeling community.”
The cuts to the WRF model, used to forecast weather systems in the United States and around the world, represent a setback for U.S. weather prediction, said Cliff Mass, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, who has used, tested and published research on the model.
The WRF model is used and supported through a partnership involving multiple organizations, including the Air Force, National Weather Service, Navy, Federal Aviation Administration and universities.
Mass said not only is the Air Force cutting its financial support for key U.S. weather research interests but also “intellectually isolating” itself from the research community and “abandoning” a cooperative effort.
“The Air Force was the main supporter of WRF,” Mass said. “The loss of Air Force funding will seriously compromise WRF development and support, undermining the main U.S. community mesoscale prediction system.”
Mass added: “It is a national embarrassment when the U.S. Air Force feels the need to take on a foreign modeling system. This was an ill-advised decision that is harmful to U.S. interests.”
Rear Adm. (ret) David Titley, who previously served as oceanographer and navigator of the Navy and had oversight of its global weather operations, expressed some skepticism on the cost savings. “If the U.S. Air Force believes they can meet global weather forecasting requirements with a $100,000 per year investment and have that system responsive to their needs, they may be in for a rude surprise,” he said.
An Air Force memo dated Nov. 19, 2014, (see “Memo 2″ at the bottom of this post), signed by Ralph Stoffler, director of weather, emphasized the advantages of adopting a model already used by the United Kingdom and several other U.S. allies. “We can enhance our interoperability and success ensuring ‘One Operation, One Forecast’ by using the same model as some of our coalition and international partners,” the memo said.
The U.K. Met Office Web site notes that government weather services in Australia, Korea, New Zealand and South Africa use its model.
The November Air Force memo also extolled the U.K. model’s forecasting prowess, noting it “consistently” outscored many other models “across a range of performance characteristics.”
The National Weather Service announced in January that in 2015 alone, its supercomputing power for forecasts would increase by a factor of 10 resulting from a $44.5 million investment with IBM. Vaccaro said this investment will improve its global, regional and localized forecasts “to better meet the needs of a wide range of partners and customers, including those in the Department of Defense.”
The Air Force said it will continue to “leverage” National Weather Service models. “The availability of the U.K. and the NOAA [National Weather Service] models in the Air Force inventory reduces our cost, improves our technical capability, and enhances Coalition operations,” Gulick said.
The Air Force Weather Agency, referred to as the 557th Weather Wing, provides forecasting support for Air Force and Army operations around the globe. It is made up of over 1,700 airmen.
The U.S. Air Force Weather Agency, which provides forecasts for Air Force and Army missions around the world, plans to replace its U.S.-based forecasting system with a model from the United Kingdom.
The U.K. model selected by the Air Force, known as the Unified Model of the United Kingdom Met Office, is widely respected. The Air Force says it will improve its forecast capabilities and lower its costs. Within a single framework, this model is able to provide both short- and longer-range forecasts over large and small areas — which is not a seamless operation within the current U.S. system.
But the decision — which was made without coordination with the National Weather Service or U.S. Navy, who partner with the Air Force to improve predictions — has drawn criticism from parts of the U.S. weather research and forecasting community. Several leading figures say they are perplexed that the Air Force has selected a foreign model when the United States is investing substantial resources to develop its own world-class models.
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model developed by the University Center for Atmospheric Research, a federally funded laboratory in Boulder, Colo.
“We’ve been notified by the Air Force that we’re going to sustain cuts and that they are now going to go with a foreign model,” said Scott Rayder, senior adviser to the president at the University Center for Atmospheric Research. “To say we’re disappointed is an understatement. I am confused as to why they’re subsidizing the competition and not supporting the U.S. weather modeling community.”
The cuts to the WRF model, used to forecast weather systems in the United States and around the world, represent a setback for U.S. weather prediction, said Cliff Mass, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, who has used, tested and published research on the model.
The WRF model is used and supported through a partnership involving multiple organizations, including the Air Force, National Weather Service, Navy, Federal Aviation Administration and universities.
Mass said not only is the Air Force cutting its financial support for key U.S. weather research interests but also “intellectually isolating” itself from the research community and “abandoning” a cooperative effort.
“The Air Force was the main supporter of WRF,” Mass said. “The loss of Air Force funding will seriously compromise WRF development and support, undermining the main U.S. community mesoscale prediction system.”
Mass added: “It is a national embarrassment when the U.S. Air Force feels the need to take on a foreign modeling system. This was an ill-advised decision that is harmful to U.S. interests.”
Rear Adm. (ret) David Titley, who previously served as oceanographer and navigator of the Navy and had oversight of its global weather operations, expressed some skepticism on the cost savings. “If the U.S. Air Force believes they can meet global weather forecasting requirements with a $100,000 per year investment and have that system responsive to their needs, they may be in for a rude surprise,” he said.
An Air Force memo dated Nov. 19, 2014, (see “Memo 2″ at the bottom of this post), signed by Ralph Stoffler, director of weather, emphasized the advantages of adopting a model already used by the United Kingdom and several other U.S. allies. “We can enhance our interoperability and success ensuring ‘One Operation, One Forecast’ by using the same model as some of our coalition and international partners,” the memo said.
The U.K. Met Office Web site notes that government weather services in Australia, Korea, New Zealand and South Africa use its model.
The November Air Force memo also extolled the U.K. model’s forecasting prowess, noting it “consistently” outscored many other models “across a range of performance characteristics.”
The National Weather Service announced in January that in 2015 alone, its supercomputing power for forecasts would increase by a factor of 10 resulting from a $44.5 million investment with IBM. Vaccaro said this investment will improve its global, regional and localized forecasts “to better meet the needs of a wide range of partners and customers, including those in the Department of Defense.”
The Air Force said it will continue to “leverage” National Weather Service models. “The availability of the U.K. and the NOAA [National Weather Service] models in the Air Force inventory reduces our cost, improves our technical capability, and enhances Coalition operations,” Gulick said.
The Air Force Weather Agency, referred to as the 557th Weather Wing, provides forecasting support for Air Force and Army operations around the globe. It is made up of over 1,700 airmen.
