Afghanistan Weather and Hello

[RMacDonald]

Hello everyone,

Just realized today how hard it is to forecast here in Afghanistan with the terrain and limited model data, we have the GFS, WRF, COAMPS, and DTA. The traditional models, GFS and WRF do struggle alot her with the terrain and limited data points. I push out a forecast for 35 knot winds, when it looks like it will setup, and we get 18 knots. I go for 18 knots, and get 39 knots, never fails here. This is my fourth time here and still have not gotten this weather regime down pat. Even my smartcast model with was made specifically for here, struggles at times but has help a few of my fellow forecasters here. I guess one day, we will have a solid foundation for forecasting here. Oh yea, also wanted to say hello to all the members, trying to stay active by reading and learning from you all, but being in the military always seems to take all your time. Take Care...

 

[samuel stone]

best of luck out there, I could imagine the difficulties your facing with those circumstances. look at it as an interesting opportunity to learn more and thank you for your service

 

[Jeff Duda]

You know what they say about NWP models: garbage in, garbage out. You'll never get a decent forecast if you don't have observations to feed the model.

 

[Dave Gallaher]

Wishing you more successful forecasting and more peace than you would realistically expect.