Active Northern Plains

[Andy Jackson]

It seems like an active weather pattern is availing itself beginning Saturday into the workweek. After looking at the CPC's updated stuff and the recent model runs (GFS,NAM) it looks like there could be some more tornadoes coming for the northern plains. It seems like it's already been an unprecedented season for the area with significant tornadoes in ND,SD, MN and IA. Does this strike anyone else as interesting?

 

[Dean Baron]

It's just been a good season. And actually, despite the numerous and big tornadoes up here this year, we've only had 5 or 6 chase days up here in MN so far this year, and 2 of those were busts. Our season usually starts sometime in June and lasts until August, so you will see quite a few slight risks up here the rest of the summer.

 

[Derek Heide]

I'd keep an eye on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. SPC has gone as far to intoduce Day 5 and 6 risks for the Northern Plains.

 

[Jeff Duda]

It seems like an active weather pattern is availing itself beginning Saturday into the workweek. After looking at the CPC's updated stuff and the recent model runs (GFS,NAM) it looks like there could be some more tornadoes coming for the northern plains. It seems like it's already been an unprecedented season for the area with significant tornadoes in ND,SD, MN and IA. Does this strike anyone else as interesting?

I wouldn't consider this season unprecedented. What has happened this year that has never happened before? If you look at the numbers, especially those available on the SPC's WCM site, you'll see that tornado reports have remained at or below the 50th percentile as the year has progressed, and even hail and wind reports are just now coming up to and exceeding average. Granted, since late April the severe weather season has been pretty active to catch up with average values after a nearly dead first 3.5 months of the year, but I don't see how that is unprecedented.

Interestingly enough, there was an entry on the U.S. Severe Weather Blog about something like this recently: http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2010/04/can-tornado-activity-through-april-portend-may/. It looks like the thru-April defecit for tornado reports was very high (est. -200), but the May departure was right around average. So I guess the only thing I can see this year that has been unprecedented was the tornado report defecit through April.

 

[Andy Jackson]

Yeah, I guess on the US scale it's not quite a record. I was just thinking this was an active year for the NP at least from what I've seen in the last few years. We'll see a clearer picture in a few more months.

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

I wouldn't consider this season unprecedented. What has happened this year that has never happened before? If you look at the numbers, especially those available on the SPC's WCM site, you'll see that tornado reports have remained at or below the 50th percentile as the year has progressed, and even hail and wind reports are just now coming up to and exceeding average. Granted, since late April the severe weather season has been pretty active to catch up with average values after a nearly dead first 3.5 months of the year, but I don't see how that is unprecedented.

Interestingly enough, there was an entry on the U.S. Severe Weather Blog about something like this recently: http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2010/04/can-tornado-activity-through-april-portend-may/. It looks like the thru-April defecit for tornado reports was very high (est. -200), but the May departure was right around average. So I guess the only thing I can see this year that has been unprecedented was the tornado report defecit through April.

June. Comparing the last few years tornado-wise, the departure from the average for June is incredible. It may not be an unprecedented June, but it's surely an impressive one.

By the way, count me blind, but I don't see what everyone is talking about here. The shear for at least the next week is horrendous, at least from the GFS standpoint. I don't see anything more than a bagful of popcorn, but I guess I'm biased since I did the worst possible thing for depleting chase savings - I moved. $2500+ down the drain and no more season for me even if it's local, so pay me no mind ...

 

[Derek Weston]

June. Comparing the last few years tornado-wise, the departure from the average for June is incredible. It may not be an unprecedented June, but it's surely an impressive one.

By the way, count me blind, but I don't see what everyone is talking about here. The shear for at least the next week is horrendous, at least from the GFS standpoint. I don't see anything more than a bagful of popcorn, but I guess I'm biased since I did the worst possible thing for depleting chase savings - I moved. $2500+ down the drain and no more season for me even if it's local, so pay me no mind ...

surface low and resulting low level shear is displaced for US chasing opportunities. Have to love that trough, however. . . and if things bump a little further south, could be fun.

 

[MatthewCarman]

Yeah, I guess on the US scale it's not quite a record. I was just thinking this was an active year for the NP at least from what I've seen in the last few years. We'll see a clearer picture in a few more months.

This year has been pretty quite when compared to 2008 for Iowa. The Dakota's and Minnesota are probably more active this year then 2008 but for Iowa there has been hardly any tornadoes and we had a late start to the season for the state. Still the EF4 in Iowa is something to think about.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

I think to a certain extend Andy is right. I think you have to look at the analogous trends in hurricane forecasting for the year to find the answer to the NP season. Right now were coming out of a strong El Nino and entering into a weak La Nina and I think were seeing the effects of that in the NP and Upper Midwest. While the number of severe reports may not be anything to shout at, the number of severe events is certainly a bit higher, at least it seems to me that way. July 17th by itself I think was a bit on the high end, even though MDT risks days are not out of the ordinary across the North for mid-summer, the number of reports total I think was something out of 2008.

Just my 2 cents