8/4/2004 FCST: Upper Midwest

[Robert Dewey]

Guess I'm gonna have to wait till tomorrow to get any answers, since the ETA and GFS have slight differences, but those slight differences may be signifcant in the development of severe weather (i.e. how far south or north to travel). I am concerned about all of this convection that keeps developing and associated clouds (the IR loop indicates lots of blow-off fanning out all over the place, with numerous pockets of convection blowing up - And if the ETA has its way, I think clouds/precip will be a problem. Still, CAPES creep above 2500J/KG from central IN/OH southward, which is farther south than the previous runs, and it is also much further away from the excellent shear/helicity.

The 00Z RUC 12HR forecast has much more CAPE, and is a bit further north with the SFC low - And oddly enough, it looks like it handles the bow echo in northern IL pretty well (it has at least some QPF in that region between 00Z and 06Z (convective precip).

So... Gonna have to wait till tomorrow to decide...

 

[rdale]

I have no concerns about the one in there right now as it'll be well out of the picture (actually think I'm ready to head south and greet it near Coldwater MI) but the one behind it may be a convection killer if it's still around in the morning.

 

[Robert Dewey]

(actually think I'm ready to head south and greet it near Coldwater MI)

I was thinking about heading a bit south as well - Thats a really nice bow echo!

 

[Robert Dewey]

Well, things definately are not looking as good as they were yesterday. Current line of storms across IN/OH is the main show right now, and there are plenty of clouds. These clouds could still break (IR loop shows cloud tops warming behind the main line of SVR), allowing for some moderate instability. Wind fields arn't close to what they were progged to be - which WAS 40knts at 850, increasing with height... Now, the latest RUC struggles to bring in 30 knts at 850 - more like mid to upper 20's... With the best helicity located just north of the best instability (>1500J/KG). Overall, tornado threat looks rather limited, and the best chance for anything good (which would be linear), looks like it would be in southern OH/southeastern IN. To sum it up, unless something changes, I think I am gonna sit this one out...

Robert

 

[Blake Naftel]

The 12Z upper midwest surface obs indicate the low is well into S. CEN. Illinois and should be in central Indiana by 18Z. Greatest TOR potential IMO would be well into Ohio; towards Xenia and Dayton if anywhere. The placement of the low is further south than originally anticipated; alas, no chase day for me. I shall enjoy the welcomed cool, gloomy conditions north of the boundary... great napping weather.

..Blake..

 

[Dan Robinson]

Although things don't look as good risk-wise, the threat has shifted further south and close enough to home that I might give this day a try after all. Bust potential (at least tornado-wise) looks high, but with just over a 2 hour drive to get to the target it's not going to be a big loss. There should be some good lightning as a consolation prize. I'll be relying on WIFI and libraries today as I've already cancelled my WxWorx service for the season.

Right now the only player looks like tail-end charlie at the end of that line, unless new cells can get going out ahead.

 

[Jon Miller]

Per the 1630 Day 1 - Going, Going GONE !!! - no chase today maybe some other day.