Robert Dewey
EF5
Guess I'm gonna have to wait till tomorrow to get any answers, since the ETA and GFS have slight differences, but those slight differences may be signifcant in the development of severe weather (i.e. how far south or north to travel). I am concerned about all of this convection that keeps developing and associated clouds (the IR loop indicates lots of blow-off fanning out all over the place, with numerous pockets of convection blowing up - And if the ETA has its way, I think clouds/precip will be a problem. Still, CAPES creep above 2500J/KG from central IN/OH southward, which is farther south than the previous runs, and it is also much further away from the excellent shear/helicity.
The 00Z RUC 12HR forecast has much more CAPE, and is a bit further north with the SFC low - And oddly enough, it looks like it handles the bow echo in northern IL pretty well (it has at least some QPF in that region between 00Z and 06Z (convective precip).
So... Gonna have to wait till tomorrow to decide...
The 00Z RUC 12HR forecast has much more CAPE, and is a bit further north with the SFC low - And oddly enough, it looks like it handles the bow echo in northern IL pretty well (it has at least some QPF in that region between 00Z and 06Z (convective precip).
So... Gonna have to wait till tomorrow to decide...