8/28/05 NOW: HURRICANE KATRINA

[Scott Olson]

Hurricane Katrina is now inland and Miami radar is showing some nice convection to the south and max inbound winds. Latest Vortex was 986MB prior to landfall and it looks like Katrina took a couple jogs south in the last several hours. Buoy VAFK1 recorded a sustained wind of 55kts with stronger winds even closer to the eye. Dvorak anaylsis still shows no dramatic weakening as is the case with some landfalling Hurricanes which may be a sign that Katrina may well emerge organized enough to re-strengthen to a Hurricane.

Post your anaylses and reports here for Hurricane Katrina

 

[B Ozanne]

I have no doubt that Katrina will re-strengthen to a hurricane, and its going to happen a lot sooner than everyone expected. That jog to the south has been impressive. It could be back over the open water by morning, and its path over the Everglades isn't exactly hurricane killing territory.

I just heard a recent report out of U Miami of a gust to 96.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Latest statement also noted that the eye passed over or VERY near NHC / NWS MIA.I've heard a few gusts up around 90mph, though haven't heard of any SUSTAINED winds to advisory levels (80-85mph).

 

[David Wolfson]

Bizarre is the word. K's eye seems to be becoming a little better organized -- 40 miles inland. She's really booking and looks to enter open water again in the next two or three hours (!) This lady has a real chip on her shoulder. The 0Z models should have an interesting story, but it still looks to me like the gulf coast anticyclone isn't going to break down and let K north quite as fast as the thinking a few hours ago. FWIW.

 

[B Ozanne]

That stint as a tropical storm was more brief than I expected. Katrina is now safely back to hurricane and still moving southwest. The past few loops on the radar are indicating a little turn, but I am still skeptical of the progged storm track.

 

[Justin Walker]

KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

Kat is rapidly strengthening, which is very evident on IR imagery, nice cold cloud tops and becoming nicely symetricly shaped. However Kat is still entraining some dry air from the north.

EDIT:

STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS.

WOW

 

[B Ozanne]

Buoy 42040 is just about to get into tropical storm force winds. Onshore locations aren't far behind.

 

[Scott Olson]

Since tropical storm force winds will be arriving later today I have brought back the NOW thread for observations and discussion of the Hurricane. Please make sure to add some informative content instead of just reporting what the pressure is or what the winds are.

That has got to be one of the biggest and neatest looking eye structures i've seen via Dvorak IR. GFS, NOGAPS, BAM Models and LBAR all are currently taking K over or just slightly west of NO. The offical NHC track takes it just a tad east of N.O. but with an eye that size it's probably the same as a direct hit. A tight clustering consensus of the AVN, NOGAPS, LBAR and MRF seem to suggest landfall at or very near Barataria Bay.

Looks like an eyewall replacement cycle is underway. Latest TAFB estimated 127kts which is horribly underestimated based on actual recon. Dvorak anaylsis also indicates deepening has slowed down/stopped during eyewall replacement cycle but could resume later tonight. Yikes!
:?

 

[HAltschule]

CMAN at Southwest Pass, Lousiana is now gusting to 90 MPH.....
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[Robert Dewey]

CMAN at Southwest Pass, Lousiana is now gusting to 90 MPH.....
( I think this is where this post goes)

Yes, you are in the right spot...

Also, latest scan of the IR shows a blowup of convection over the southwest portion of the eyewall. I think the eyewall was in a "lull" for a few hours as it is in a replacement cycle. I think this cycle may be finishing up... Thus the higher reflectivies...

That's just my take...

 

[Tim Vasquez]

Just a reminder that this is a NOW thread. In line with our policy on NOW threads, it is reserved for severe weather which has been reported or observed (i.e. buoys, EM reports, media, etc). All other discussion should go in the FCST thread or on the Katrina board.

I don't see any clear violations of this policy right now, but we want to make sure that future posts conform to this requirement.

 

[HAltschule]

64 NM south of Dauphin Island....latest wave height is 32.8 feet. WOW. Even higher than the 28 feet forecast by TPC/NHC.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

64 NM south of Dauphin Island....latest wave height is 32.8 feet. WOW. Even higher than the 28 feet forecast by TPC/NHC.

Just as a note here... The TPC wasn't forecasting WAVE HEIGHT as far as I know... They are forecasting locally 28' STORM SURGE. This is the rise in the sea level (essentially), then there are waves on top of this surge. 28' surge + 30' waves = very high...

 

[HAltschule]

Good point, Jeff. Thanks. BTW...The NDBC has set up a nice auto roundup of obs at this site. Enjoy. http://ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.phplat1...dist=250&time=3

Time for some rest so I can get up bright and early for landfall. Have fun gang,

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Keep an eye on this: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?sta...meas=wdpr&uom=E

That's from BURL1 (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BURL1 ) off the National Data Buoy Center network... It sits on the extreme se tip of LA (or a little offshore)...