7/22/06 NOW: Hurricane Daniel

Hurricane Daniel has reached an impressive level of intensity for the Eastern Pacific. Current Dvorak indicates upwards of 125kts. The Hurricane has not only maintained it's intensity for the last 24 hours but has actually strengthend today. Current Eye tempature is near 19C and well cleared out. Here's a close up high resolution of the eye:

Vertical shear is around 10kts and will slowly increase over the next 48 hours. Daniel is currently in 27-28C SST's and it will not be crossing into the 26C for at least 48hours. Altimetry Data shows little difference in change of sea height in the coming 36 hours and AOML data shows no change in the depth to the 26C isotherm. So for the next 24 hours it appears Daniel's processes (eyewall replacement) will have the most impact on potiental intensity. The cyclone is forecasted by most models to start taking on a more NW track at 18z Sunday.
It should quickly start to weaken as it crosses outside of the warm belt and into the shallow colder tempatures and increasing vertical shear.
Daniel is quite the hurricane, that is a amazing eye. I was a bit surprised not to see him weaken today, largely due to the fact that Daniel is a annular cane. I agree that the next ERC will determine Daniel's final intensity level, but remember, his last ERC took a really long time. Lets hope if another one occurs it won't last as long.
Daniel is still chugging along in the Pacific. Latest Dvorak shows little change and sattelite imagery looks just as good as yesterday. This is a little more then 48 hours with no significant change in intensity (just internal fluctations). The models have relaxed on the timing and degree of the NW movement, with a still present GFDL northern bias. The GFS/NOGAPS look to be a good consensus and that would put Daniel heading just north of Hawaii. It's not totally impossible it could come close, or even conceieveably hit Hawaii (though Climo looks to always come close to Hawaii).

The question then becomes if Daniel could maintain itself outside of 120 hours and still be significant enough to have an impact. The new path allows it to stay in 10-15kt of shear (this doesn't seem to change much on the GFS). Intensity wise, by 120hours the Ships would weaken to a tropical storm. The GFDL would weaken to a Category 1-2 Hurricane and the GFS would maintain intensity upwards of 130kts. Im not sure what to think of the GFS solution, while thats quite a stretch, the GFS has been the only model to not weaken Daniel. This track would take it from 27C into near 25C north of HI. Given the fact that Annulars are on the low side with a mean of something like 26.5C and that the vertical shear shouldn't strengthen to much. It's certainly possible it could still be a low end Hurricane as it nears the region. There aren't any significant cool eddies that are in Daniels path either.
Update For HU 05E (Hurricane Daniel).

HU 05E (Daniel) is currently moving WNW at 10 kts. Current intensity at 24/18Z is at 80kts with gusts to 100kts. Maximum significant wave height at 24/18Z is 34 ft. Concensus with all of the forecast aids have it moving into the Hawaiian area through TAU 120. In regards to intensity of 05E according to UW-CIMMS guidance further development is not expected due to the current shear enviroment. However ECMWF and WRF shows that shear should decrease beyond TAU 72. Forecast discussion has HU 05E moving into cooler SST's (25 degrees Centigrade) through 72 hours. Although HU 05E is in a weaking trend there is some talk that when in interacts with warmer SST's after passing into the Hawaiian area (27-28 degress Centigrade) GFS has it re-intensifying while all other models show a gradual weaking. Forecast guidance in regards to intensity will keep 05E at 50 kts through TAU 120. With this forecast guidance it will have 05E moving through the Hawaiian Islands as a relatively strong tropical storm


24/1800Z HU 05E Warning Graphic.


Latest HU 05E infrared satillite imagery