7/19/10 FCST: NE, IA, MO, IL

[Rob Gardner]

Current storms in Iowa are not helping things... Would appear though that there should be enough instability to get some tornadic supercells earlier in their development before we get our good old linear setup late in the evening. Seeing as to how I have a day off today and willing to deal with a bust I am targeting Clarinda, IA, and then east from there.....

 

[Skip Talbot]

Yeah, Rob I was ready to head out the door for this one, but that early morning convection across Iowa has me sitting here stalling. The line crossing into Missouri right now only continues to expand to the west. Its probably going to limit the instability eastern portions of the risk area see later and keep the warm front well south of where last night had it forecasted to be by early afternoon (northern IA). The line coming out of Nebraska is what I believe the models were forecasting to initiate right now in SD, so the main MCS looks like it might be ahead of schedule as well. The convection ahead of it is probably going to limit its potential. For chaseable storms I was hoping to catch the southern end of that cluster/new development to the south as it tracked into central Iowa by early afternoon. If something discrete could go up and interact with the OFB/warm front I think we'd have a shot at a chaseable tornado. Right now, however, I see these clusters/lines continually expanding out to the southwest that eventually mature in severe yet linear bowing line segments. I don't see nice, discrete tornado supercells making up Tail End Charlie on these lines. The tornado threat will probably be limited to embedded sups when these clusters hit the OFB's from the morning junk, unless we get new initiation ahead of one of the liens. I'd target southwest IA as of now for the best shot at something chaseable, but will be holding out here for now as I'm not liking what I'm seeing. The southwest storm motion is also going to be pushing storms away from the warm front and/or continually expanding the OFB, so storms might not be able to tap the best directional shear and might remain elevated/outflow dominant as they're trapped behind the OFB.

 

[jshields]

i too was going out today in hopes of catching a discrete cell out in front of the main linear mcs that was supposed to come plowing through this area later today. but alas, morning convection is totally killing that idea and keeping the warm front way south. what a shame as the hodographs last night were looking amazing for today just north of the front, and 50-60 kts of shear was there as well. the spc had a moderate risk out on the first day 1 outlook issued overnight but quickly pulled it on 13Z outlook. kindof surprising, as it seems they always wait til the 1630 outlook!! anyways, i've taken the time off already and might still head out if any clearing can occur...

 

[J Brooks]

It may be a long shot, but my thinking is extreme southeast NE / southwest IA may be the best hope for seeing some action today. Convection really hasn't taken hold in that area this morning, and the numbers seem to be more than adequate for initiation later this afternoon based on NAM and WRF. The air is pretty much untapped in sw IA, and there's been nothing throughout NE today, plus moderate capping. I could very well be wrong, but I am thinking this might be the best area to see a discrete supercell or two. That's what I see anyway, I could be wrong.

 

[Rob Gardner]

Clear skies and very warm and humid here in North West Missouri... Storms look to be initiating south of I-80 now, looks like favorable conditions between i-80 and the missou border especially as storms track across the front... en route north on i-35 now, hoping to get a few storms early in their genesis