7/19/07 NOW: CT / NJ / NY

[Andrew Ryan]

Tornado warning issued for litchfield county in Connecticut. Conditions are ripe around the tri-state area for more tornadoes. Below is an excerpt from a spc mesoscale discussion.

RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT OWING TO THE
BACKED SURFACE WINDS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 40-45 KT.

The likelihood of tornadoes would be greater if there was more sunshine this morning but clouds have prevented the atmosphere from destabilizing.

-andrew

EDIT: Tornado on the ground near Thompson, CT at around 3:15PM. Over a half-hour advance warning for this tornado!! (Impressive for NE standards)

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I am in Newtown, CT located near Danbury and we just got hammered by some heavy rain and wind. Nothing to write home about.

 

[HAltschule]

Latest radar shows low and mid level rotation with a moderate bow echo and other scattered thunderstorm cells over CT now. Bulk Shear is still 40-50 kts and 0-1km and 0-3km helicity values are 200-250. This area of thunderstorms is along and ahead of a strengthening warm front and should pose some additional tornadic threat through 10pm or so.

Another area of enhanced tornadic threat appears to be over New Jersey...especially from Central NJ southward. This area seesm more dependant on wehather organized trw's will form or not.

Of course, here in Albany, NY we have the A-Hole (aka...the Albany Hole). We were socked by MCS rains almost all day and have only weakly destabilized. We have 300-350 helicity values here but just not enough to kick off some decent TRW's. I'd be surprised if we do go off. Figures...

 

[Dave Kaplow]

This was rather frustrating for me because I had actually arranged to take a day off from work this week to chase... The problem is, I picked yesterday, which at the beginning of the week looked like a better bet. Needless to say, yesterday was a total bust (good SRH like today but no instability due to overcast/rain) and so I had to hear about today's tornado on the radio, at work. Sigh...

Although I don't really think today's setup was all that chaseable, either. The supercell that produced the tornado was embedded in a messy fast-moving line.

I did see what appeared to be a small dying supercell as I left work. It had discernible structure and a very ragged wall-cloud. Better than nothing at all, I suppose.

 

[HAltschule]

Taking off of work well in advance for a chase in Northeast can be the extremely frustrating and a waste of time. Luckily I do not have to worry about it. If I want to chase, I can usually arrange to do my work at other times. But If I have learned anything about chasing in the Northeast...it is that you cannot plan ahead much for SVR weather here. It is rare to have all of the parameters line up perfectly for organized supercells and tornadoes. When it does, something like a 1 degree cap screws it all up. Or like today, when the parameters and instability were so good...we get a rain-dominant MCS that kills the appreciable daytime heating. In the Northeast, it is VERY hard to recover from and rain-laden atmosphere to get SVR. The rain usually has to be over with by 9-10am if you want any chance of PM Severe at all. And when it does SVR in a big way, it is usually when we back in to it somehow with short notice.