7/11/07 FCST: CO/KS

[Brian Stertz]

The 12z ETA was showing signs of what could be an active High Plains severe wx day in a solid moist upslope ...Denver cyclone...post frontal setup. Certainly worth keeping an eye on with the due east LL winds/strong directional shear...SB CAPE of around 2000 j/kg... and Tds in the 60-65 range forecasted in the CO High Plains in the wonderful Denver to Limon corridor. Whether or not these tornadoes will be the landspout or mesocyclone-borne variety will remain to be seen.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Wednesday could be a whopper for the CO front range. Dewpoints at least in the mid 50s to perhaps low 60s, especially in the 60s if we get MCSs tonight and Tuesday to push outflow up against the mountains where the Palmer divide meats the ramparts. SE surface flow with decent mid and upper level flow out of the northwest will provide ample shear. Suttle waves in the northwest flow will pass weak cold fronts each day or two.

A couple years ago, there was 2 or 3 days in a row where a HUGE, and I mean HUGE tornadic HP motherload softball hail producing BEAST formed on the Palmer divide around Monument and crept southeast just to the east of CO Spgs. I believe it was late July or early August. These days were very similar to the setup upcoming this weak. But you have to get on the storms early early early because they go HP quick and the hail is prolific.

The NWS Pueblo AFD spells it out. So much for my new roof, it may get a workout!

It's early, but having lived here long enough to see this pattern before, the dead nuts top of monument hill on I25 would be the ideal target, but like I said, you have to be there around 10 am to see the structure and possible tornadic development.

 

[Mark Farnik]

Finally, some exciting weather in my backyard! It's about time...
Tomorrow is looking to be a classic Day 2, post frontal High Plains severe weather outbreak. With the combination of upper 50's/low 60's dewpoints pushing as far northwest as southeastern WY/western NE Panhandle, 35-40 kt w-nw 500 mb flow overtop 20 kt southeasterly surface yielding excellent low level directional shear, surface heating in the low 80's yielding aoa 2000 j/kg of SBCAPE and a moderate upper air disturbance whose early to mid afternoon arrival could not be better timed, storms should fire just after noon and quickly go supercellular. Tornadoes are likely, along with gorilla hail and damaging winds. I would not be suprised to see a half dozen or more tornado reports tomorrow, and I also have a hunch that, given the ridiculous shear, somebody or possibly many somebodies in eastern Colorado are going to get hammered with baseballs or softballs tomorrow afternoon and evening.
I'll be watching this situation like a hawk the next 24 hours and be ready to roll out the door after noon tomorrow. Storm motions should be moderately sluggish, as they usually are this time of year, so the storms will be very chaseable. The key tomorrow will be to stay ahead of the storms, as anybody who gets caught in them is likely going to have their car destroyed by good ol' Colorado gorilla hail...
Good luck to all, and stay safe!

 

[Brian Stertz]

Things continue to look interesting and still be on track for some bigtime supercells across E.Colorado...possibly migrating into extreme W.Kansas by tomorrow evening. The only thing holding me back is that things may tend to go HP quite rapidly in the target area between Akron, Denver, Colorado Springs (Palmer Divide area). Certainly is enough shear and instability there for tornado development, but the more damaging aspects will be the baseball or larger hailbombs. Best of luck for those heading out...and pray for windshield angels for those on the business end of the monster HP supercells that are probable by tomorrow afternoon. Yikes.

 

[Stan Rose]

Since i have to work tomorrow's event (instead of chasing it) it's almost sure to be a mad scene! If the 00Z NAM has its way, the squall line form hell will move through SE CO and drop huge amts of rain. With the later timing, one would think the tornado threat would be earlier and further north, but should be interesting to see how things pan out.

 

[Tim Jones]

Nice upslope flow along the Frong Range today. I'm going to take off after the noon show and most likey play an area north of I-70 up to Weld County. I like the prospects of the usual supercell blowing up over DEN and moving along or near the I-76 corridor and is closer to my DMA. Good luck to everyone.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Time to chime! A classic-looking Day-2 setting up in Colorado this afternoon! I'm looking to be heading out of the Denver area around noonish and will likely be playing a southerly target as I'll probably book down I-25 into the Springs and fire east out of there. Typically on days like this, I am getting burned by committing east too soon and not getting far enough south, particularly as these storms will be moving in a southerly direction. I'll be targetting an area between US Hwy 24 and CO-94 by 2pm.

Storms should start to fire in the mountains at or around noon. Palmer Divide action shouldn't be too far behind. The Springs seems to be a hot spot this season, so I wouldn't be surprised to be running after a storm from the city. Good shear, upslope, and moisture will fuel some good storms. Supercells with very large hail are likely early on with the potential for a few tornadoes. I think the best chance for this activity will be in that area I mentioned above. Storms should merge into a cluster of some sort a couple hours after initiation and move southeast posing more of a wind/flood threat.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Expecting a well established Denver cyclone setting up this afternoon on SE low level flow under upper level NW flow. Have made arrangements to leave work at 2pm MT with initial target the SE side of the denver cyclone where shear should be enhanced by Palmer Divide, just to the east of Parker/Castle Rock. Good luck to all that are out and about today.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

If I were chasing this setup I too would target SE of Denver. For initiation I'd be somewhere along highway 83 between Denver and Colorado Springs and make sure I have a road option east nearby. If a storm erupts along the convergence zone in that region it could possibly go crazy! This along with the Denver cyclone is a good combination for some nice supercell structures with major hailcores and a few tornadoes. Good luck to all chasing today and stay safe!

 

[Grant Gutierrez]

I should be leaving the Denver Area around 1pm and will head for Limon. I like my N,S,E,W,SE, and SW options from there. I am sure to cut south at some point because east of Colorado Springs does seem like the place to be lately.

 

[Ben McMillan]

I like the Limon area as well as a starting point. (should be heading that way shortly) Things could get really interesting once the upper-level support becomes fully established as the day goes on. The 12z NAM shows northwest winds at 500mb of over 45 knts in east central CO between 0 and 6 Z. This combined with E-SE surface inflow and a developing low level jet should really get things turning. Also of note, Denver sunset is 829pm so there will be plenty of time to take in some nice high plains storm structure before dark. Good luck to everyone out today.


EDIT- Also wanted to point out a neat product from NWS Boulder/Denver for those who havn't seen it. It's a new graphical weather forecast...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=bou

 

[Cameron Redwine]

I'll be leaving BOU by noon and plan to be around LIC between 2-3 PM. This will allow time for food/fuel and data. I have a feeling that I may need to shoot a little south and west from, but we'll just see. Good luck to all, I'll be on the 146.97 as well as .52 and .55 simplex, so hit me up! KC0CYZ

Good luck to all and stay out of the hail!

 

[Daniel Barker]

CO highway 83 is under rehab MP 33.10 to 41.20 – Five Miles N. of Hwy 105/83 Interchange to Nine Miles S. of Franktown. one lane maybe