Aaron Kennedy
EF5
Largely zonal flow exists across the CA/US border. During the day a SW trough should amplify over the Canadian Rockies, but other than really far west (Alberta and Saskatchewan), large scale forcing should be minimal until after dark unless the system speeds up.
Instead, focus will shift on WAA across the WF in ND and back towards the surface low/trough/dryline in western ND/MB/SK. While capping will be a substantial problem, there is evidence in the models that isolated convection may be able to pop. 24hr NAM forecat sounding for Minot, ND (below) pretty much says it all. Westward ho!
http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=024&STATIONID=_KMOT
If convection can initiate, I expect it to be isolated and to quickly go supercelluar. While tornado risk may be iffy with questional surface moisture, I wouldn't be surprised to see a tube.
Instead, focus will shift on WAA across the WF in ND and back towards the surface low/trough/dryline in western ND/MB/SK. While capping will be a substantial problem, there is evidence in the models that isolated convection may be able to pop. 24hr NAM forecat sounding for Minot, ND (below) pretty much says it all. Westward ho!
http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=024&STATIONID=_KMOT
If convection can initiate, I expect it to be isolated and to quickly go supercelluar. While tornado risk may be iffy with questional surface moisture, I wouldn't be surprised to see a tube.
