7/1/06 NOW: WI / MI / IA

[Kiel Ortega]

Good cell going through Oconto CO....SHAVE just got tennis ball sized report in extreme W Oconto Co....has great overhang and some rotation at midlevels.

 

[nickgrillo]

Actually, Oconto Co is in northeast WI (and not MI)... For that matter, that particular storm has been the best looking storm of the day (with two hail reports -- 1.75" and 2.50" inch). Another storm which has exhibited supercell charactoristics is moving just north of GRB. The observed 18z sounding for GRB looks a lot less favorable for supercells than the 18z sounding from APX (Gaylord MI), which has much stronger cyclonic curvature in the hodograph (along with a lower LCL/LFC and weaker CINH for a surface-based parcel). With SPC mesoanalysis indicating ~50kts kts of 0-6km shear in the area (enhanced by the 60-70kts of midlevel flow), I wouldn't be surprised to see additional strong supercells across this region through the next several hours, given the favorable strong instability as well (2000-3500j/kg SBCAPE, per SPC mesoanalysis). I really wish CINH could erode further south (towards the MI-46 region north of Big Rapids) where ongoing elevated activity is being influenced by low-level WAA (beneath divergent flow in the left-exit region of the upper-level jetstreak). Unfortunetely, I'm not too sure on the areas further south in MI (towards I-96), which appear too vertically stable for any surface-based activity (with both the NAM and RUC holding on to CINH through the rest of the evening) -- with the best chance for supercell structures (and large hail / isolated tornadoes) mainly north of a Big Rapids-Bay City line. I wouldn't be surprised to see additional significant hail reports, and even a couple isolated tornadoes, given the intense deep-layer shear / strong CAPE (with less veered sfc flow over northern and central MI yielding stronger SRH / streamwise vorticity).

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Actually, Oconto Co is in northeast WI (and not MI)
[/b]

Ooops...had been looking at that line in Upper MI and the brain did one thing while the fingers did another. :lol: Anyways, have consistently gotten 2.25" to 3" reports from W Oconto Co to a little ESE of Oconto Falls.

 

[rdale]

NSSL gridded hail worked about perfect with the 3" hail reports - http://radioweather.us/grb.png Volume scan equally impressive with 60dbZ to 40K in purple http://radioweather.us/grb-vol.png

 

[J West]

Currently have TOR warnings for Sauk, Columbia and Fond du Lac counties. Only report was a barn down from the FDL storm.

The WI line fired up along a boundary that's been sitting here all day, but the storms finally can tap into it with the weakening cap.