7/1/06 NOW: WI / MI / IA

Good cell going through Oconto CO....SHAVE just got tennis ball sized report in extreme W Oconto Co....has great overhang and some rotation at midlevels.
Actually, Oconto Co is in northeast WI (and not MI)... For that matter, that particular storm has been the best looking storm of the day (with two hail reports -- 1.75" and 2.50" inch). Another storm which has exhibited supercell charactoristics is moving just north of GRB. The observed 18z sounding for GRB looks a lot less favorable for supercells than the 18z sounding from APX (Gaylord MI), which has much stronger cyclonic curvature in the hodograph (along with a lower LCL/LFC and weaker CINH for a surface-based parcel). With SPC mesoanalysis indicating ~50kts kts of 0-6km shear in the area (enhanced by the 60-70kts of midlevel flow), I wouldn't be surprised to see additional strong supercells across this region through the next several hours, given the favorable strong instability as well (2000-3500j/kg SBCAPE, per SPC mesoanalysis). I really wish CINH could erode further south (towards the MI-46 region north of Big Rapids) where ongoing elevated activity is being influenced by low-level WAA (beneath divergent flow in the left-exit region of the upper-level jetstreak). Unfortunetely, I'm not too sure on the areas further south in MI (towards I-96), which appear too vertically stable for any surface-based activity (with both the NAM and RUC holding on to CINH through the rest of the evening) -- with the best chance for supercell structures (and large hail / isolated tornadoes) mainly north of a Big Rapids-Bay City line. I wouldn't be surprised to see additional significant hail reports, and even a couple isolated tornadoes, given the intense deep-layer shear / strong CAPE (with less veered sfc flow over northern and central MI yielding stronger SRH / streamwise vorticity).
Actually, Oconto Co is in northeast WI (and not MI)
Ooops...had been looking at that line in Upper MI and the brain did one thing while the fingers did another. :lol: Anyways, have consistently gotten 2.25" to 3" reports from W Oconto Co to a little ESE of Oconto Falls.
Currently have TOR warnings for Sauk, Columbia and Fond du Lac counties. Only report was a barn down from the FDL storm.

The WI line fired up along a boundary that's been sitting here all day, but the storms finally can tap into it with the weakening cap.