Actually, Oconto Co is in northeast WI (and not MI)... For that matter, that particular storm has been the best looking storm of the day (with two hail reports -- 1.75" and 2.50" inch). Another storm which has exhibited supercell charactoristics is moving just north of GRB. The observed 18z sounding for GRB looks a lot less favorable for supercells than the 18z sounding from APX (Gaylord MI), which has much stronger cyclonic curvature in the hodograph (along with a lower LCL/LFC and weaker CINH for a surface-based parcel). With SPC mesoanalysis indicating ~50kts kts of 0-6km shear in the area (enhanced by the 60-70kts of midlevel flow), I wouldn't be surprised to see additional strong supercells across this region through the next several hours, given the favorable strong instability as well (2000-3500j/kg SBCAPE, per SPC mesoanalysis). I really wish CINH could erode further south (towards the MI-46 region north of Big Rapids) where ongoing elevated activity is being influenced by low-level WAA (beneath divergent flow in the left-exit region of the upper-level jetstreak). Unfortunetely, I'm not too sure on the areas further south in MI (towards I-96), which appear too vertically stable for any surface-based activity (with both the NAM and RUC holding on to CINH through the rest of the evening) -- with the best chance for supercell structures (and large hail / isolated tornadoes) mainly north of a Big Rapids-Bay City line. I wouldn't be surprised to see additional significant hail reports, and even a couple isolated tornadoes, given the intense deep-layer shear / strong CAPE (with less veered sfc flow over northern and central MI yielding stronger SRH / streamwise vorticity).
Ooops...had been looking at that line in Upper MI and the brain did one thing while the fingers did another. :lol: Anyways, have consistently gotten 2.25" to 3" reports from W Oconto Co to a little ESE of Oconto Falls.