6/5 FCST: Central US

[Jeff Snyder]

Open for discussion...

Looks like airmass over much of the central US will destabiliize through the day on Saturday, resulting in CAPEs >3000-4000 through much of northern TX, OK, and into KS and NE. Additionally, ETA progs strong low-level jet axis over central OK by 0z, with 30-40kt SSE 850mb winds. While absolute flow above 850mb will remain relatively weak, the strong directional shear component will result in decent 0-6km shear. An odd feature on 250mb surface at 0z Sun (Sat. evening) leads me to believe it is some sort of feedback or other issue...

 

[Bill Hark]

Yes, Saturday June 5 is looking more interesting. According to the 00 ETA, there is a low over the Texas Panhandle that will shift soutward . There are backed winds across Kansas and Oklahoma. By 00Z, there are backed winds across south-central Kansas, central Oklahoma and northern Texas. Precip is over north-central Oklahoma and north west Kansas. CAPE approx 1500-2500 with cin present. SRH increases across the area. I am more concerned about the upper levels. The best winds at the 250 level are farther north. By 00Z, there is evidence of a jet streak at 500 mb level of 40 knots across south-central Kansas. I don't know how good the ETA is of predicting jet streaks this far out. There is a nice 850 jet across the area. Initially, temps of 10 at the 700mb level will be in a north-south line across the area, higher remps to the west. This line will shift to the south-west by 00Z. Right now, I like the area from Wellington, KS to Ponca City OK. I think supercells, likely tornadic, are possible although this is still early model data. Any thoughts?

Bill Hark

 

[Mickey Ptak]

6/5/04

Well, looks like a good chase opportunity for a W OK tomorrow. Everything looks to be in place except the upper level wind speeds. To say the least they suck. 250mb speeds are forecasted to be no more than 50knts with a NW Flow (via 12z ETA). 500mb speeds not much better.
On a positive note however, 500mb and 700mb vvel look real good per the last 2 runs along with 0-3 SRH values between 300 and 500 m^2/s^2 for West OK. Moisture return should be >60 Td in much of OK with CAPE value from 2000 to 3500 for most of the area.
I think if there is a shot for any tornadic supercells it will be mid afternoon turning linear as the day/evening progresses. As of right now (most likely will change) I would choose a target of Altus OK.


Mickey Ptak

 

[Mickey Ptak]

6/5/04

Would be nice if we could get some outflow boundries from tonights convection also.


Mickey Ptak

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Yeah tomorrow doesn't look tooooo bad. I agree with Mickey that it looks like the best instability will be western OK. Flow above 700mb is pathetic at best. However, I do think the ETA is underforecasting sfc Tds and resultant CAPE by 0z. Given the very strong low-level shear, I'd expect any supercells that can stay isolated/discrete to have a pretty decent tornado threat by afternoon.... Something to keep an eye on at least.

 

[Shane Adams]

I agree with Mickey, southwest OK looks like the best combination of windfields, instability, moisture, and dewpoint depressions.

I'm liking the Hollis, OK area right now, with possible adjustments ENE as dewpoint depressions dictate.

 

[Bryan Burkholder]

Looks pretty good for tomorrow. However, as far as wind speeds go, they look fine to me, seeing as how we are in the northwest flow regime aloft. All week storms have been firing, however the instability tomorrow looks better than the past week on the southern plains.



The whole situation depends on where the boundaries are tomorrow morning, if convection dies tonight, and where. W/SW OK looks pretty good, maybe even down into WIchita Falls area. We'll see tomorrow I guess .

 

[Shane Adams]

Well, I've decide to take Jo's advice and wait till morning and hope like hell the RUC decides to get in on the act this go round.....cause the ETA is out to lunch. The 0Z isn't even close to the 18Z run, I mean they are like polar opposites. I can't remember two consecutive model runs looking so different from one another, just insane.

Now, the windfield is basically gone, with NOTHING faster than about 30kts anywhere, even the awesome 850 LL jet is gone, reduced to around 20kts max. I think it's crap. Will wait till morning to decide on a target per RUC analysis. I know it's June and it's NW flow, but c'mon. I don't buy the ETA at all.

 

[Shane Adams]

Well, as if the fact that no one else has commented on this setup since my last post wasn't enough evidence already, models and SPC are consistent with their "it ain't happening" forecast for today. There was much hope until the 0Z runs last night, and since then "the carpet has been yanked out from under us"...a quote from Jo, lol.

I see a lot of great CAPE areas however, so those will now be the focus of my needle-in-a-haystack search for a target of some sort. I'm willing to hang on to hope until the 1630 outlook, but if that too is a dud, I think I'll be sitting this one out. Looks like my horrible streak of no June chasing will continue at least temporarily.

Hoping the 12Z will produce a marginal windfield somewhere,

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

I think there will be plenty of strong to severe storms scattered about...except for maybe an isolated brief spin-up, today does look like a dud for tornadoes.

Don't lose hope Shane...I've been watching the medium range models and for several days there have been pretty encouraging signs that unseasonably strong upper level flow will return to the southern and central plains, mid to late week.

 

[Jim Bishop]

With such weak upper level flow, storms will be outflow dominant today. The only chances I see otherwise is under a "possible" 45-50knot 250mb jet the models show developing over central and eastern Oklahoma between 21-00Z. However, I'm not even sure if anything will fire in that area. If anything does, I'll be sitting in Norman. Good luck to anyone that heads out.

Jim Bishop
http://stormgasm.com

 

[Tim Vasquez]

The boundaries are not very well defined yet and the models are very inconsistent this morning. This is one of the most difficult forecasts I've encountered this spring. But I don't see much tornado potential either.

Tim

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

The MAF/SJT vad wind profiles and JTN profiler suggest some enhanced N/NW mid-level flow, and there are nice low level profiles -- veering with height -- in the vicinity of the old OFB now west of SJT. That's contigent of course on getting a storm to pop out there before the enhanced mid-level flow goes away. Not a lot of Cu out there yet but they are getting some heating. That's about the only possible tornado play I see right now.

 

[mike wann]

Looks like pretty much the same as yesterday here in NW TX just further west today along the out boundries from last nights/this mornings storms. Some strong multicell storms with large hail. An isolated supercell possible mostly in the southern TX panhandle. I may head NW from Graham, TX to Lubbock/Childress in about an hour or so. Not expecting tornadoes, but who knows, maybe a nice surprise.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Storms are starting up in KS

GOES-2 SAT and NWS Radar are both showing a couple of storms firing up in Central KS. They are located roughly E of Hill City and NE of Hays, KS. No storm warnings yet. A NOW thread will be started soon if this action kicks up a couple of more notches. 8) LJK.

Update: GOES-12 SAT also shows scattered TS-tops along the CO-NM border. No watches or warnings for that area either. LJK.

Another Update: NWS is having a Mesoscale Discussion about potential for severe storms in the OK-TX Panhandle areas. A watch may be posted in the next hour.
NWS is considering another MD for Central KS and NE.
NWS is considering another MD for Northern MN. 8) LJK.