6/28/06 FCST: IN / OH / MI

[Eric Graham]

Been looking into forecasts early this morning. Expecting a squall line event for this afternoon/early evening. Suppose to get into the 90's today. I'm down here in Edinburgh, IN near Columbus for INDHS Advance Storm Spotter Class (how ironic) so if I do go out today it'll be after 5 or so. Expecting mpre of a lightning show when it gets here. By the way IN/OH is under a slight risk for severe storms.

Eric

 

[rdale]

I don't see anything that points towards a squall line setup for today - more like what we've seen the past few days with isolated storms bringing down some 60mph wind gusts (just enough to verify SVR's ;> ) and hail being the primary threat. MI is in the same soup as the other two states.

 

[Terrence Cook]

Mesoscale Discussion from SPC backs up rdale but speaks of morning convection being rather intense. So initiation could be at a nice time.. (not making us wait until 3-5 PM) Looking forward to today with the typical 2% tornado chance, but decent looking paramters with some severe potential with hail the most significant.

 

[Robert Dewey]

There does appear to be a weak sfc trough/wind shift line (weak cold front?). That might be good for a more organized initiation of convection compared to the previous day, but probably not a squall line per se.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

I'm hoping with many boundries being around, lake breeze, outflow, etc. that there maybe a landspout or weak tornado with any decent storm. APX does talk about this in the morning update. Right now, i'm stuck at my home until around 5pm, but after that if there is anything within 50 miles that looks intense i'll take a quick chase.

 

[Terrence Cook]

If a weak boundary or wind shift does exist it's in central Illinois and extends towards Chicago. I see convection popping in all directions but East, Indianapolis is near dp depression (maybe that explains the lack of convection there. TerraHaute and Lafayette both have nearby cells forming. Love my location for the 360 degree unblocked view.

 

[nickgrillo]

There does appear to be a weak sfc trough/wind shift line (weak cold front?). That might be good for a more organized initiation of convection compared to the previous day, but probably not a squall line per se.
[/b]

Yeah, it's likely a weak cold front. For that matter, with the deep-layer shear vector perpendicular to that forcing boundary -- we'll be dealing with mostly isolated short convective segments (with the 20-30kt 0-6km shear generally supportive of multicellular updrafts). Nonetheless, with the cold ~ -15C temperatures at 500mb (which will continue to chill as the midlevel trough moves eastward into northern MI) and particularly low wet-bulb zero levels, we'll most certainly be looking at some decent hail today. For that matter, it appears that each day for the past few days, storms have been able to take advantage of the enhanced low-level accelerations (and stretching potential) per the low-level dry adiabatic lapse rates and strong 0-3km low-level CAPE -- so we could be looking at a couple of weak tornadoes as well (in addition to the large hail threat).