6/23/10 FCST: MI/ON/IL/IN

[Nick Nolte]

Maybe I'm way off pace here, but is anyone else adjusting their target closer to the MI/IN border - maybe even closer to Ohio? It seems like most of the CAPE is hugging the MI/IN border and the surface winds just ever so slightly turn better closer towards Ohio. I'm pretty new to this so correct me if I am out of place.

I was thinking the same thing. I live near Jackson so I've been holding tight so far. SPC just shifted the MDT area south and the 10% tor is gone. Not that I'm SPC chasing, but what I was concerned with panned out in their outlook as well.

But there's still a pile of crap along the MI/IN border. The question becomes is recovery a possibility. I'll admit, my greatest weakness in forecasting is trying to figure out what to do when convection like this morning and what's left puts a kink in the plans.

It looks like on satellite, there's an OFB running across IL/IN into SE MI. Then there is the clearing starting to take place along the US 10 corridor. So, I feel like I'm stuck in the middle and I'm going to need to make a decision soon. I'm still leaning north as the wind field is better up that way and I tend to agree with Mike K that it'll go linear down south quickly.

 

[Nick Nolte]

Well, I decided to stick w/ my northern target. Atmo seems to be recovering decently, its up to 82 north of Mason, the sky is clearing, CAPE is rising, its at 1500 east of Ludington according to SPC meso analysis. Satellite looks to be clearing out real well to the west. Guess we'll see.

Good luck out there

 

[Matt Hunt]

I'm monitoring the satellite for a possible play close to home. The OFB is moving south towards my area, but the initiation may begin on the tail of it in central IL. Like others have said, I don't think the wind fields are very good down here, though SPC noted 50-60 kt bulk shear north of the OFB. They must have another model they are looking at, b/c from RUC soundings there is literally 0 bulk shear in Indiana.

I'm with you Nick in that ongoing convection tends to make the picture very unclear for me. In what I've seen so far this year, things always seem to fire along that OFB, and usually further south than it was originally expected, so that's why I'm considering central IL/IN as a possible target.

 

[Skip Talbot]

I'm sitting in Davenport right now, expecting initiation across SE Iowa. Strong instability is pushing north as the early convection and cloud debris clears out, which it is doing rapidly. Given the lack of a cap, I'd expect storms to start going up within a couple hours, probably on the northern end of that NE/SW line of cu extending from Iowa City towards KC where 50-60 knot deep layer shear intersects it. Any storm tracking along that OFB may pose a brief window for tornadoes before we get our linear transition.

 

[John Vandehei]

The two rounds of showers and storms moving across southern MI and northern OH has certainly squelched my optimism for southern Michigan. At least the clouds are breaking up and skies are beginning to clear nicely. Like the other posters have pointed out, either central Lower Michigan or further south in northern IN and OH look better. In fact, there is nice convection going in northern OH as I write this. With the outflow boundary pushed well to the south, initiation in southern lower Michigan looks unlikely for the next few hours. It looks like the best chance for anything good along the I-94 corridor in MI is for something to fire up downstream and head this way. However, that would likely bring more linear type activity instead of tornadoes. On thing to hope for is to get some good destabilization with the sun coming out. Combine this with a possible lake breeze front, and maybe something isolated could fire up in Berrien or Van Buren Counties. Otherwise, It looks like I'll have to settle for what ever develops upstream and wait for it to come my way (can't travel very far, have obligations tonight).

 

[Robert Dewey]

Nice Cu development ahead of the cold front in IA moving E... with some additional development north of Grand Rapids, MI moving SE. I could envision the stuff in SW WI to NW MO developing into a pretty strong MCS. Very strong downdraft CAPE, excellent shear (+60knts of effective shear), lots of sfc instability (+4500 SBCAPE), and a strong disturbance moving into the area. SPC derecho parameter is pretty high as well.

I'm not sure about the stuff north of Grand Rapids. There's still some decent CIN, which may cap it off. If this does fire and pushes SE, I could see it also limiting the more widespread wind damage threat from the potential upstream derecho.