6/17 FCST: CO/NM/KS/OK/TX et al.

[Jeff Snyder]

Open for discussion of today's chase event... SPC highlights the area under a slight risk, with a somewhat similar situation as yesterday, although the RUC is spitting out pretty dismal CAPE forecasts with the exception of se CO.

 

[Tim Jones]

I'm thinking the Trinidad, CO area for initiation with the potential tornadic threat being just East of there. The low CAPE doesn't bother me too much, as it doesn't take much to get things going on the upslope flow.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Thought I'd throw in my 2 cents worth for areas a bit further north..

Although SPC hasn't made a huge issue of things near here (Although we are barely included), I wanted to mention some potential for the DCVZ to possibly get things going. Tim's right, CAPE values don't need to be very high around here at all as long as we have sufficient moisture w/ upslope as well as something to force these storms and get some rotation.

Clouds are my only main concern; however, storms out east managed to at least pull TORNADO WARNING yesterday under cool, cloudy conditions. Although I won't bet my brother's farm, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple TORNADO WARNINGS for areas east of Denver and north of the Palmer Divide; mainly in Adams, Arapahoe, Douglas, and Elbert (and places further east). Will those actually drop? That I won't say, but perhaps one or two weak landspouts may get going.

In any case, I'll keep a watchful eye to things, and if something gets inviting, I'll shoot out for a quick look. Outside of that, not going to hold my breath for anything more than a hailer.

 

[Tim Jones]

Good point, Tony. I wouldn't be surprised to see some TOR warns in the DIA area and south providing the clouds burn off. I can remember seeing landspouts and tornadoes out there in the upper 40's dewoints - think it was back in 2000. That upslope flow can very very magical. Looks like things will get going out there pretty soon. Good luck if/when you head out.