6-16-14 Setup question

[Andrew Clope]

So I was playing with GFS and NAM and it looks like tomorrow (6-16) could be a decent day out in NWern Iowa... However, I cannot see anywhere where you'd be getting lift? No fronts, obviously nothing orographic. I looked at the upper level air charts and it kinda falls on the front right quadrant (which I thought was generally a source of air sinking). How do you identify convergence on the surface? Do you just look for winds that converge? Am I missing something, or would this indeed not be worth taking a trip for?

Thanks

 

[Andrew Clope]

Just a thought... If you get storms to fire early in the morning, and the OFB moves into another area nearby with a light/moderate CAP, and the environment was right, could this cause this?

 

[Mark Blue]

You'd want to take a look at a surface map for tomorrow AD to see what kind of forcing mechanisms you are dealing with.

Here's a surface map from the WPC that is for tomorrow at 7 PM CDT. It depicts a stationary front near the southern SD border, but from what I understand this will be more of a warm front than a stationary front. This will be the focusing mechanism at the surface and should provide an area of convergence and lift for any storms that potentially form in this environment.

 

[Kenny Drake]

I wouldn't be too worried about having enough forcing for initiation tomorrow. If I had to be worried about forcing, I'd be worried about having too much. This looks to be a moderate-strong CAPE / low CINH day. The real question is where the best environment will setup to support supercell growth and sustain it. The GFS fires storms in SW MN and rides them ENE. The NAM is... interesting - it fires convection in WC MN and also in SE NE/NE KS. I would love to see the high-res models. I'm curious to see what the SPC does in their initial Day 1 for Monday. Overall, the tendency is going to be upscale growth into an MCS. This time of year it's pretty typical to see an MCS riding just north of the warm front. Unfortunately I don't have any more time to look into this in detail.