mrobinson
Thread started at the request of Michael Geukes
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rdale
EF5
Great Lakes
Nice little MCS crossing the Mississippi River at this time moving into an area of close to completely clear skies which will only make things more unstable... Could see winds & hail a threat with it as it continues across northern IL/IN through early afternoon but at this point it doesn't look to be terribly organized.
After that we'll take another shot at SVR just about anywhere in IN/MI/OH/IL etc but nothing terribly extreme expected.
- Rob
Robert Dewey
EF5
Great Lakes
SPC:
The forecasted mid level winds of 50-60knts are concerning, and instability is already up around 1000J/KG across southern lower MI (using CAPS, with a T of 70F and Td of 68F). But as Rob said, looking at the radar, things just arn't organized. Hopefully this will change this afternoon as heating occurs/instability increases, and make up for yesterday across MI.
RobertShane Adams
This was the closest thing to Kansas so I'll post here....
Still in ICT, hungrier even more after getting caught off guard yesterday by the sweet SE Nebraska storm (congrats to all who nailed it BTW). Kinda excited about the potential along I-70 around the Salina to Topeka area. Decent mid-level flow with extreme CAPE should overcome marginal LL shear (due mainly to weak winds at 700/850). RUC and ETA both breaking out precip in this area by 0Z. The situation is by no means extremely-promising, but we've seen stuff with less to work with......
We'll be heading out in a few hours, most-likely to Salina, where we'll sit and wait. Have a good feeling about any supercells that can form and maintain themselves. LCLs aren't a real concern yet, as moisture has been coming up overnight from the Gulf, in a narrow band just east of the tropical/subtropical/crapfest low thingy down there. Sitting in ICT with 85/74 on the ob........this will do!!!! We expect this moisture to remain in place throughout the day, hopefully setting the stage for a few good sups, with an isolated tornado or two.
Confidence is high, after all.....we're in Kansas :wink:Similar threads
