samuel stone
EF3
At this point Saturday looks ok so I decided to start a thread
Stationary front should set up over Kansas and Missouri with a 997 surface low progged by the 12z NAM to set up over southwestern Kansas/northwestern oklahoma. given strong istability along the front Tstorms should inititate atleast from eastcentral kansas into missouri during the late afternoon with more conditional develpment (because of strong cap) possible further west into central or northwestern kansas. any storms south of the front along the dryline will be very high based so any thing good, similar to friday's set up will be along the east-weast stationary front where strongly backed surface to 850 milibar flow beneath strong 700 milibar wsw flow will yeild helicity on the order of 200-250 m2s2, that combined dew points that the NAM proggs to be in the 70's over eastern kansas (possibly slightly overdone?) and a drop off from temps of 95 degrees south of the front to 80-85 degrees along and north of the front should yeild favorable lcl's (finally).
Also the 12z Nam proggs CAPE along the boundary in kansas and missouri of 3000-4000 j/kg. So the low level enviroment looks solid but I still I have some concerns about the upper flow, although slightly stronger at 500 milibar than friday by 5 kts acoording to the 12z Nam (30kts) and also good veering in the upperlevels in combination with backing in the low levels is favorable for good directional shear, but I still think that things may have trouble remaining supercellular afrter initial development, bassically I would just feel better if 500 milibar flow were 10 kts stronger, although I do like how the flow is oreinted to the boundary (possibly may have a few sups ride along the boundary and tap locally increased turning along the bounadary?)
Also I have included Nebraska, Colorado and Wyoming in the thread for the threat of a upslope event with 12z Nam forecasting strong easterly winds advecting in 55-60 degree dewpoints beneath a good 500 milibar shortwave with a 40 kt jet max over spreading most of wyoming and western nebraska by 0z.
both possibe areaslook descent (upslope and stationary front)
Any thoughts?
Stationary front should set up over Kansas and Missouri with a 997 surface low progged by the 12z NAM to set up over southwestern Kansas/northwestern oklahoma. given strong istability along the front Tstorms should inititate atleast from eastcentral kansas into missouri during the late afternoon with more conditional develpment (because of strong cap) possible further west into central or northwestern kansas. any storms south of the front along the dryline will be very high based so any thing good, similar to friday's set up will be along the east-weast stationary front where strongly backed surface to 850 milibar flow beneath strong 700 milibar wsw flow will yeild helicity on the order of 200-250 m2s2, that combined dew points that the NAM proggs to be in the 70's over eastern kansas (possibly slightly overdone?) and a drop off from temps of 95 degrees south of the front to 80-85 degrees along and north of the front should yeild favorable lcl's (finally).
Also the 12z Nam proggs CAPE along the boundary in kansas and missouri of 3000-4000 j/kg. So the low level enviroment looks solid but I still I have some concerns about the upper flow, although slightly stronger at 500 milibar than friday by 5 kts acoording to the 12z Nam (30kts) and also good veering in the upperlevels in combination with backing in the low levels is favorable for good directional shear, but I still think that things may have trouble remaining supercellular afrter initial development, bassically I would just feel better if 500 milibar flow were 10 kts stronger, although I do like how the flow is oreinted to the boundary (possibly may have a few sups ride along the boundary and tap locally increased turning along the bounadary?)
Also I have included Nebraska, Colorado and Wyoming in the thread for the threat of a upslope event with 12z Nam forecasting strong easterly winds advecting in 55-60 degree dewpoints beneath a good 500 milibar shortwave with a 40 kt jet max over spreading most of wyoming and western nebraska by 0z.
both possibe areaslook descent (upslope and stationary front)
Any thoughts?