5/6/09 FCST: IA/MO/IL

[John Farley]

I think there is some potential in the northwesterly flow over IA and northern MO today. Instability will be a limiting factor, and the models do not agree on how much there will be, though there certainly is potential for CAPE around 1000 or so. Directional shear looks good, with southwesterly surface flow and strong northwesterly flow at 250 mb in the exit region of the jet streak coming in from the northwest. Not sure if the stuff in western IA and northwest MO now will evolve into the main show or not, but I see enough potential to head for somewhere around the Kirksville, MO area shortly. Storms have been hard to come by in this area this year, so might as well take the opportunity, however limited it may be.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

A quick look through 16z MSAS shows 1k CAPE already analyzed over North East Missourri into South East Iowa. Mid to Upper 50 DP's are present in the above area also. As the upper level trough continues to dig eastward, a 100kt Jet Streak will set up over the area.

Front is analyzed just west of the IA border. Certainly not a huge setup, but some directional shear will be present, and WBZ and FRZ levels should be supportive of some large hail, and as WFO DVN said storms may produce copious amounts of hail. Any areas that can recieve the best diurnal heating should see the best potential for any severe weather.

I will just stay local with an eye on radar with a possible move west likely..

 

[James Wilson]

A tornado warning is in effect for the NW portion of Iowa around Spencer. Doesn't look that immpressive on radar however.